As winter approaches, pretty much every public health expert I follow is anticipating a COVID-19 surge. The size and severity of that surge may depend in part on SARS-CoV-2 variants. As a result, experts are closely watching a few current variants that might lead to faster COVID-19 spread this winter. Here’s a review of what’s circulating right now, what to watch for in the coming weeks, and how our public health system is tracking the variants.
All major COVID-19 metrics continue to increase in the U.S., as we deal with a late-summer surge. Wastewater surveillance suggests that current virus spread is on pace with the Delta surge in 2021, though other data sources are less reliable these days.
Several major metrics continue to point to a summer increase in COVID-19 spread. Coronavirus levels in wastewater are up in all major regions, as is test positivity from the CDC’s network. Hospitalizations have started ticking up as well.
COVID-19 data in the U.S. is showing increasingly clear signs of a summer surge, with infections rising across the country. However, thanks to the federal public health emergency’s end, we have less and less data to track this trend.
National COVID-19 data are showing signs of a summer uptick in infections across multiple regions. Newer variants, summer travel, and holidays are likely contributing to this increase, though it’s hard to say if we will see a real surge or a continued shifting of the U.S.’s high COVID-19 baseline.
The COVID-19 plateau continues, with hospital admissions and viral levels in wastewater (the two main metrics I’m looking at these days) both trending slightly down at the national level. Newer Omicron variants are still on the rise, but don’t seem to be impacting transmission much yet.
COVID-19 spread continues to trend down in the U.S., though our data for tracking this disease is now worse than ever thanks to the end of the federal public health emergency. If newer Omicron variants cause a surge this summer, those increases will be hard to spot.
Across the U.S., COVID-19 spread continues at a moderately high plateau as newer versions of Omicron compete with XBB.1.5. Officially-reported cases and new hospitalizations declined by 7% and 8% respectively, compared to the prior week.
COVID-19 spread appears to be at a continued plateau nationally, with slight declines in cases, hospitalizations, and viral concentrations in wastewater. New variants are on the horizon, though, at a time when data are becoming increasingly less reliable.
COVID-19 spread in the U.S. remains at a high plateau, according to reported cases, hospitalizations, and wastewater surveillance. Experts are watching new variants that mutated from XBB as potential drivers of more transmission this spring.
