COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: June data

  • National numbers, June 25

    National numbers, June 25

    Wastewater data from Boston show some small increases and decreases in transmission this spring, reflecting our uncertain baseline.

    In the past week (June 11 through 17), the CDC did not update COVID-19 hospitalization data due to changes in its reporting process.

    During the most recent week of data available (June 4 through 10), the U.S. reported about 6,600 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 950 new admissions each day
    • 2.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than the prior week (May 28-June 3)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 4.0% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 16% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of June 21, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 30% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 24% by XBB.1.9; 11% by XBB.2.3 (as of June 24)

    The CDC failed to update its primary COVID-19 metrics this week, so I have no national updates to share about hospital admissions, deaths, or test positivity. The most recent available data from the agency and wastewater surveillance sources suggest that the U.S. is still experiencing a transmission plateau.

    According to the CDC’s dashboard, the agency didn’t update its hospitalization data “due to a change in required reporting cadence from daily to weekly,” following the end of the public health emergency in May. The dashboard note is a bit unclear, but I’m assuming this refers to a change in requirements for state public health departments reporting to the CDC, as the national agency lost its authority to require daily data reporting when the PHE ended.

    Still, it’s confusing to me that the CDC’s dashboard note only refers to hospitalization data, because deaths, test positivity, and other metrics also weren’t updated this week. These data points don’t rely on state reporting systems, so they shouldn’t be impacted by the reporting change.

    Either the note is incomplete, or the CDC staff in charge of this dashboard took an issue with one metric as an excuse not to update several metrics. I don’t love the outcome either way. Like, do they think nobody is checking this dashboard? Because we still are.

    Anyway, the CDC’s most recent data (from the week of June 10, now about three weeks ago), suggested that the U.S. was in a continued COVID-19 plateau, with hospital admissions and test positivity from the CDC’s surveillance network declining very slightly. 

    Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics indicates a similar plateau at the national level. Regionally, the Northeast and West coast experienced slight upticks in COVID-19 spread in the last few weeks, but the coronavirus levels in their wastewater now appear to be trending back down. (These are small changes, though, compared to what we’ve seen in past surges.)

    The sewage in Boston and New York City, two large Northeast cities that are often bellwethers for larger COVID-19 trends, similarly slow slight viral increases in May followed by downturns in June. NYC data are delayed by up to two weeks, though, so take this with a grain of salt.

    The CDC did update its variant estimates this week, showing that XBB.1.5 is now causing less than one-third of cases nationwide. XBB.1.6 and its relatives are now the most popular lineages in the U.S., causing a combined 30% of new cases in the two weeks ending June 24. Other XBB variants, including XBB.1.6 and XBB.2.3, are also on the rise.

    As health agencies put fewer and fewer resources into tracking COVID-19, the data we still have show continued severe ramifications for this disease’s unchecked spread. This disease still kills over 100 people per day.

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  • National numbers, June 18

    National numbers, June 18

    COVID-19 hospital admissions and test positivity (from a select number of labs) are both trending slightly down. Chart from the CDC.

    In the past week (June 4 through 10), the U.S. reported about 6,600 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 950 new admissions each day
    • 2.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than last week (May 28-June 3)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 4.0% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive (a 5% decrease from last week)
    • A 5% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of June 14, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 40% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 26% by XBB.1.16; 21% by XBB.1.9 (as of June 10)

    Overall, the national COVID-19 picture remains fairly similar to what we’ve seen for the last few weeks. The U.S. is at a plateau of COVID-19 spread; we could see an increase this summer, but limited data make it hard to say for sure.

    New hospitalizations for COVID-19 continue to trend slightly down, with just under 1,000 patients admitted each day nationwide. This is the first time that the U.S. has passed this low benchmark since early in the pandemic, and suggests the protective value of vaccinations and prior infections for preventing severe symptoms.

    Biobot Analytics resolved the data issue I mentioned last week and provided updated wastewater numbers, also showing a continued (though slight) downward trend. Current national coronavirus levels are far below this time last year, when Omicron BA.2 variants were spreading widely, though they’re still above prior low points in 2020 and 2021.

    Biobot’s regional data also show mostly plateaus, though coronavirus levels may be increasing very slightly in the Northeast. The CDC’s wastewater data also suggest some places in the Northeast may be seeing increased viral spread, but it’s difficult to identify a clear regional trend.

    Trends from the CDC’s lab testing network similarly show a potential increase in COVID-19 spread in the Northeast over the last couple of weeks, though this testing trend has yet to translate to higher hospitalizations. In New York City, some of the sewersheds that reported recent coronavirus upticks now appear to be trending back down.

    Is a summer surge coming for the Northeast, and then the rest of the country? Right now, it’s quite hard to say; signals from wastewater and testing data are mixed, sometimes delayed, and tough to interpret in the short term. I’ll be watching closely to see how this changes in the coming weeks.

    Meanwhile, it’s important to remember that data are especially limited when it comes to Long COVID, one of the most severe (and most likely) impacts of coronavirus infection. As testing becomes less and less accessible, fewer people will recognize their infections—and, as a result, they may be less likely to recognize later symptoms as Long COVID. But those symptoms can still occur, and cause lasting damage.

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  • National numbers, June 26

    National numbers, June 26

    BA.4 and BA.5 (teal) are competing with BA.2.12.1 (red), with different lineages dominating in different parts of the country. CDC estimates reflect the week from June 12 to June 18.

    In the past week (June 18 through 24), the U.S. reported about 680,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 100,000 new cases each day
    • 208 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% fewer new cases than last week (June 11-17)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 31,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 4,400 new admissions each day
    • 9.3 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 1,800 new COVID-19 deaths (0.5 for every 100,000 people)
    • 56% of new cases are Omicron BA.2.12.1-caused; 35% BA.4/BA.5-caused (as of June 18)
    • An average of 50,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    America’s Omicron subvariant surge continues to be in a plateau this week, with national COVID-19 case rates, hospitalization rates, and wastewater trends remaining fairly level or showing slight declines.

    The U.S. has reported a weekly average between 100,000 and 110,000 new cases a day since mid-May, according to the CDC. These numbers are massive undercounts, as about five times more rapid antigen tests are being conducted in the U.S. than PCR tests, so the true trend is difficult to discern—but we can safely say that there is a lot of coronavirus circulating throughout the country.

    New hospital admissions, the number of COVID-19 patients who sought treatment, rose slightly in the last week: about 4,400 patients were admitted each day nationwide, compared to 4,300 last week. Wastewater data from Biobot shows a national plateau, as coronavirus levels drop in the Northeast and West while rising in the South and remaining stagnant in the Midwest.

    Why this prolonged plateau? Most likely, the rise of immune-evading Omicron subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 is preventing a BA.2-initiated wave from truly dipping back down. Estimates from the CDC suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 may even be outcompeting BA.2.12.1: the share of U.S. cases caused by BA.2.12.1 dropped for the first time in the CDC’s latest variant prevalence update, from 63% in the week ending June 11 to 56% in the week ending June 18.

    Regions with a higher share of BA.4 and BA.5—namely, Gulf Coast states, the Midwest, and the West Coast—are also reporting case increases. A few state hotspots that stick out in the (admittedly, poor) official case counts: Hawaii, Florida, New Mexico, Alaska, and California all reported more than 250 new cases per 100,000 people in the week ending June 22.

    In the Northeast, BA.2.12.1 is still causing a majority of cases, but BA.4 and BA.5 are gaining some ground. This may explain why places like New York City are seeing case trends that simply refuse to go down as quickly as we’ve observed in past waves, though a lack of new safety measures is likely also playing a role.

    Meanwhile, vaccination rates remain the lowest they’ve been since late 2020. Fewer than 25,000 people received a first vaccine dose in the week ending June 21, according to the CDC. I was expecting to see a bump from children under five finally becoming eligible for vaccination, but it has not shown up in the data yet—likely another signal of current apathy towards COVID-19 safety.

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  • National numbers, June 19

    National numbers, June 19

    The Omicron subvariants surge might be peaking, but it’s turning around slowly. Chart from Biobot, retrieved June 19.

    In the past week (June 11 through 17), the U.S. reported about 700,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 100,000 new cases each day
    • 215 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new cases than last week (June 4-10)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 30,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 4,300 new admissions each day
    • 9.2 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 1,900 new COVID-19 deaths (0.6 for every 100,000 people)
    • 64% of new cases are Omicron BA.2.12.1-caused; 22% BA.4/BA.5-caused (as of June 11)
    • An average of 130,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    National COVID-19 cases appeared to plateau this week, as some parts of the country seem to have peaked in their Omicron subvariants wave while others are still reporting increasing transmission. The CDC reported an average of 100,000 cases each day—as always, this is a significant undercount of actual infections due to changing test availability.

    Major indicators are showing continued high transmission around the country. National cases have leveled off or slightly dipped, but the number of new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals increased by 5% compared to the prior week—continuing a trend of steady increases since early April. (Hospitalization trends usually lag case trends, but the increased unreliability in case reporting may have shifted this.)

    Wastewater surveillance also suggests that COVID-19 spread remains at high levels nationwide, with a very slight dip in the last week, according to Biobot’s tracker. The Northeast region is a couple of weeks past the point of its surge, at this point; data from individual Northeast cities like Boston, New York City, and New Haven, Connecticut back up this trend.

    West Coast, Midwest, and Southern states continue to report rising or plateauing transmission, according to Biobot. Wyoming, Nevada, Montana, and Utah reported the highest increases in official case counts this week (compared to the prior week), according to the June 16 Community Profile Report.

    Some of these Midwest and Southern states are also reporting high prevalences of BA.4 and BA.5, the latest (and, likely, most contagious) Omicron subvariants yet. The CDC estimates that these two lineages caused about 21% of new cases nationwide in the week ending June 11. But these data are always reported with a significant lag, suggesting that the true prevalence could be closer to 50%.

    As many of our local leaders, workplaces, and social circles continue to pretend that the pandemic is over—when we are actually facing one of the country’s biggest COVID-19 waves yet—remember that there are still options to protect yourself and your community. Safety measures like wearing a good mask, testing frequently, and gathering outdoors or in well-ventilated spaces are more important than ever.

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  • National numbers, June 5

    National numbers, June 5

    Wastewater data from Boston suggest a messy decline in COVID-19 transmission.
    Wastewater data from Boston suggest a messy decline in COVID-19 transmission.

    In the past week (May 28 through June 3), the U.S. reported about 700,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 100,000 new cases each day
    • 215 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 9% fewer new cases than last week (May 21-27)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 27,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,800 new admissions each day
    • 8.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 1,700 new COVID-19 deaths (0.5 for every 100,000 people)
    • 94% of new cases are Omicron BA.2-caused; 59% BA.2.12.1-caused (as of May 28)
    • An average of 70,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    The BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge continues. According to the CDC, the number of new cases reported nationwide dropped last week, compared to the prior week; but this drop is more likely a result of the Memorial Day holiday than of an actual slowdown in transmission. (As I frequently note in these updates, holidays always result in case reporting dips as public health workers take time off.)

    Despite the holiday, the country reported over 100,000 new cases a day last week. And, of course, this is a massive undercount. A new preprint from researchers at the City University of New York suggests that actual coronavirus infections during the BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge may be 30 times as high as reported case counts—and that’s in New York City, which has better PCR infrastructure than most. (More on this study later in the issue.)

    Unlike official case counts, the number of COVID-19 patients newly admitted to hospitals across the country rose last week: an average of 3,800 patients were admitted each day, a 5% increase from the prior week. Hospital admissions are more reliable than case counts, especially after a holiday, suggesting that we are indeed still on the upswing of this surge.

    Similarly, coronavirus levels in the country’s wastewater keep rising. Biobot’s dashboard shows a continued national increase, as well as increases in the Midwest, West, and South regions. In the Northeast, virus levels dipped last week and now appear to be at a plateau.

    Has the Northeast peaked? Optimistically, I would like to say yes, but a combination of spotty data and the Memorial Day holiday makes it tough to say for sure. In New York City, case rates dropped last week—but so did testing. In Boston, coronavirus concentrations in wastewater seem to be on a downturn—but the data are noisy.

    And even if the Northeast is coming out of its BA.2/BA.2.12.1 surge, the rest of the country is on the opposite side of the wave. Reported case numbers in Southern and Midwest states like Missouri, Wyoming, Alabama, Utah, Mississippi, and Texas shot up by over 20% last week, while Hawaii and Florida now have the highest reported case rates, according to the June 2 Community Profile Report.

    Even the CDC’s highly lenient Community Levels are beginning to light up yellow and orange, suggesting that counties from Florida to central California should reinstate indoor mask requirements. But are any leaders actually putting these measures in place? It seems unlikely, leaving the increasingly-smaller COVID-concerned minority to fend for ourselves.

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  • National numbers, June 27

    National numbers, June 27

    In the past week (June 19 through 25), the U.S. reported about 79,000 new cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 11,000 new cases each day
    • 24 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 4% fewer new cases than last week (June 12-18)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 12,900 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (3.9 for every 100,000 people)
    • 2,000 new COVID-19 deaths (0.6 for every 100,000 people)
    • 52% of new cases in the country now Alpha-caused (as of June 19)
    • 21% of new cases now Delta-caused (as of June 19)
    • An average of 0.75 million vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)
    CDC map showing estimated variant prevalence by region. The Delta variant, shown in orange here, is most common in the Midwest, where many are unvaccinated.

    Cases have continued to plateau this week, with less than a 5% drop in the daily average. As I’ve said in previous weeks, this is partially due to slowing vaccinations—the White House admitted last week that the U.S. won’t meet Biden’s July 4 goal—and partially due to the Delta variant, which now causes at least 20% of new cases in the country. (More on Delta later.)

    While those parts of the country that are widely vaccinated are still seeing low case numbers, others may need to prepare for another surge. A few Midwest states, in particular, have seen case jumps in recent weeks; the Delta variant is more prevalent in this region than others, per CDC data. (See the orange pie chart slices on the map above.)

    Missouri now has the highest rate of new COVID-19 cases per capita: 87 cases for every 100,000 people during the week ending June 23, more than three times higher than the national average. The state has seen a sharp increase in COVID-19 patients requiring hospital care, including younger adults who may be less likely to get vaccinated. Experts in the state worry that this may be “a preview of what is to come in other parts of the country that don’t have higher vaccination rates.”

    Just under 300 Americans are now dying from COVID-19 every day. A new analysis from the Associated Press confirms what many public health experts have expected: the vast majority of those deaths have occured in unvaccinated people. In May, only 150 out of over 18,000 COVID-19 deaths were in fully vaccinated Americans, the AP analysis found.

    This is why CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky recently said that “nearly every death, especially among adults, due to COVID-19, is, at this point, entirely preventable.”

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  • National numbers, June 20

    National numbers, June 20

    The Delta variant is outcompeting the Alpha variant in the U.S. Source: outbreak.info

    In the past week (June 11 through 17), the U.S. reported about 80,000 new cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 11,000 new cases each day
    • 24 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 19% fewer new cases than last week (June 5-11)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 13,800 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (4.2 for every 100,000 people)
    • 2,000 new COVID-19 deaths (0.6 for every 100,000 people)
    • 66% of new cases in the country now Alpha-caused (as of June 5)
    • 10% of new cases now Delta-caused (as of June 5)
    • An average of 1.3 million vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Data note: The CDC skipped an update on Friday in honor of Juneteenth, so this update is a day off from our usual schedule (reflecting a Friday-Thursday week instead of a Saturday-Friday week).

    Last week, I wrote that I’m getting very worried about the Delta variant (or B.1.617.2, the variant first identified in India). Now, I’m even more worried.

    The CDC updated its variant prevalence estimates this week, reporting that the variant makes up 10% of U.S. cases as of June 5. This aligns with other estimates I cited last week, and suggests that the variant is spreading here at a truly rapid pace—its prevalence multiplied by four times in two weeks, according to CDC data.

    That means Delta could be the dominant variant in the U.S. within a month, if not sooner. Vaccinated Americans are well-protected against this variant, but those who are unvaccinated need to get their shots—and soon.

    Vaccinations have picked up a bit this week, per Bloomberg. In the past week, we’ve seen 1.3 million shots administered a day. Still, researchers have estimated that the U.S. is likely to fall short of Biden’s 70%-by-July-4 goal. Disparities persist in the rollout as well.

    Meanwhile, national case numbers continue to drop (though not as dramatically as the drops a few weeks ago), while hospitalization and death numbers remain low. Notably, the vast majority of COVID-19 patients currently in hospitals are unvaccinated.

    When New York Governor Cuomo set off fireworks on Tuesday to celebrate the state’s full reopening, my girlfriend and I went up to our building’s roof to watch—only to be unable to see the show. We later realized that the fireworks were set off in New York Harbor, visible mostly to lower Manhattan (but not the outer boroughs, which have felt the brunt of COVID-19). It felt like an apt metaphor for the current state of the pandemic.

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  • National numbers, June 13

    National numbers, June 13

    Vaccines are protecting many communities in the U.S., but those not yet vaccinated remain vulnerable. Posted on Twitter by Cyrus Shahpar.

    In the past week (June 5 through 11), the U.S. reported about 98,000 new cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 14,000 new cases each day
    • 30 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% fewer new cases than last week (May 29-June 4)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 15,700 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (4.8 for every 100,000 people)
    • 2,400 new COVID-19 deaths (0.7 for every 100,000 people)
    • 69% of new cases in the country now Alpha-caused (as of June 5)
    • 6% of new cases now Delta-caused (as of June 5)
    • An average of 1.1 million vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    After several weeks of sharp declines, new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. now appear to be in a plateau. There are a few factors likely influencing this shift.

    First, the nation’s public health agencies (and data reporting systems) are making up for the reporting lags caused by Memorial Day weekend. As we’ve discussed in the CDD before, holidays always lead to low case numbers immediately after, followed by slight bumps in the following week.

    Second, vaccinations are still progressing at a slow pace—and the unvaccinated remain vulnerable. Jurisdictions with fewer vaccinated adults are seeing more cases, more hospital admissions, and higher PCR test positivity, as Cyrus Shahpar, the White House COVID-19 Director, pointed out on Twitter this week.

    Third, the Delta variant (a.k.a. B.1.617.2, a.k.a. the variant first discovered in India) is rapidly spreading in the U.S.—making the unvaccinated even more vulnerable. (More on that later in the issue.)

    Still, the vaccines are protecting many of the most vulnerable, leading to continued low hospitalization and death numbers. Total confirmed and suspected COVID-19 hospitalizations for the country are below 20,000 for the first time since HHS started tracking this metric.

    Meanwhile, the U.S. is responding to global vaccination needs by pledging to send 500 million doses abroad by the end of 2022. Many of those doses won’t go out until next year, and the world does need faster distribution in order to prevent further variant evolution. But it’s a decent start.

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  • National numbers, June 6

    National numbers, June 6

    In the past week (May 29 through June 4), the U.S. reported about 100,000 new cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 14,000 new cases each day
    • 31 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 35% fewer new cases than last week (May 22-28)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 18,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (5.5 for every 100,000 people)
    • 2,300 new COVID-19 deaths (0.7 for every 100,000 people)
    • 70% of new cases in the country now B.1.1.7-caused (as of May 8)
    • An average of 1 million vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Cases continued to fall this week, with a seven-day average now under 20,000 new cases a day. This is basically the lowest number we’ve seen in the U.S. since spring 2020—though it’s important to note that the U.S. was doing minimal testing at that time, so the true case numbers in March 2020 were likely much higher than what was reported.

    Also, last weekend’s holiday—like past holidays—likely resulted in fewer cases being reported early this week. Many testing sites and public health departments close for holidays, and it’s hard to imagine who might want to go get a nose swab on Memorial Day. Fewer than 10,000 new cases were reported last Monday and Tuesday, according to the CDC, followed by double that number each day for the rest of the week.

    Despite such low overall case numbers, infection rates remain high for the unvaccinated. A recent Washington Post analysis adjusted COVID-19 infection rates by subtracting vaccinated residents from state populations. In Washington state, for example, the case rate among unvaccinated residents is “as high as it was in late January.”

    Also, as policy researcher Julia Raifman pointed out on Twitter, fewer than half of the lowest income workers with kids are vaccinated—likely because of vaccine accessibility issues. Workers in this income bracket are also more likely to report that they had to miss work due to a COVID-19 infection, compared to higher-income Americans. 

    Nationwide, about half of the U.S. population has had at least one dose, including 63% of adults and 86% of seniors. The rate of vaccinations has slowed this past week (now only one million doses administered a day)—though this may in part be a holiday reporting lag as well. Biden’s administration continues throwing incentives at the problem in the hopes of meeting his July 4 goal.

    Testing numbers have also fallen in recent weeks, likely because vaccinated Americans have few reasons to need a test. Data watcher (and former COVID Tracking Project volunteer) Conor Kelly noted that we’re averaging under 1 million tests a day for the first time since fall 2020. At the same time, though, the national positivity rate for PCR tests is lower than ever—it hit 2.2% on June 1.

    Things are looking pretty good here in the U.S., though some experts say a summer or fall surge could still be possible if we relax restrictions too much. Other countries without vaccine access are not nearly so lucky.

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