COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: National numbers

  • National numbers, April 2

    National numbers, April 2

    New subvariant Omicron XBB.1.9.1 is most prevalent in the Midwest, according to CDC estimates.

    In the past week (March 23 through 29), the U.S. officially reported about 140,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 20,000 new cases each day
    • 43 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 9% fewer new cases than last week (March 16-22)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 17,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,400 new admissions each day
    • 5.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 1,600 new COVID-19 deaths (230 per day)
    • 88% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 5% by XBB.1.9.1; 2% by XBB.1.5.1; 0.4% by CH.1.1 (as of March 18)
    • An average of 40,000 vaccinations per day

    While official COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to trend ever-so-slightly downward, wastewater surveillance data show potential new upticks in transmission. Despite continued minimal safety measures in most places, we have to remain wary of a potential spring surge.

    Official data from the CDC suggested that cases and new hospital admissions dropped very slightly last week, compared to the week prior. But case data continue to be plagued with reporting delays; again this week, multiple states (Florida, Delaware, Mississippi, Oklahoma) reported no cases or had other issues. These delays make it difficult to assess patterns at state or county levels.

    Wastewater surveillance data provide more accurate early warnings about potential rising transmission. This week, Biobot’s data suggest slight increases in all four major regions of the country. It’s worth noting, though, that Biobot’s most recent data are preliminary. I’ll be closely watching the dashboard’s next updates, this coming Tuesday and Thursday.

    The latest Omicron variant of concern, XBB.1.9.1, could be one reason for increasing coronavirus levels. This subvariant caused an estimated 5% of new cases across the country nationwide last week, according to the CDC’s Nowcast analysis. At the same time, XBB.1.5 has declined for the first time since it emerged a couple of months ago, suggesting XBB.1.9.1 might slowly outcompete it.

    XBB.1.9.1 is most prevalent in the Midwest, particularly the region including Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska. Some counties in this region are also reporting significant coronavirus increases in their wastewater, according to Biobot and WastewaterSCAN. Missouri’s wastewater dashboard similarly shows increases across the state.

    In our current era of high background coronavirus spread (and few-to-no widespread safety measures), a new variant can easily cause concerning outbreaks. It’s important to remember that, no matter how much the virus evolves, simple measures like masks and ventilation can still make transmission less likely.

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  • National numbers, March 26

    National numbers, March 26

    Data from WastewaterSCAN suggest that most sites in its network saw downward coronavirus trends or plateaus in recent weeks.

    In the past week (March 16 through 22), the U.S. officially reported about 130,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 19,000 new cases each day
    • 41 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 13% fewer new cases than last week (March 9-15)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 17,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,400 new admissions each day
    • 5.2 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 9% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,000 new COVID-19 deaths (300 per day)
    • 90% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 3% by XBB.1.9.1; 2% by XBB.1.5.1; 0.4% by CH.1.1 (as of March 18)
    • An average of 40,000 vaccinations per day

    Nationally, we continue to see the same slow decline of COVID-19 spread across the U.S., as shown by official case data, hospitalizations, and wastewater surveillance.

    Reported cases dropped by 13% last week compared to the week prior, while new hospital admissions dropped by 9%. As I’ve noted in the last couple of updates, the CDC continues to deal with reporting delays from different state health departments. This week, Texas, Arkansas, Florida, and Indiana did not report cases to the CDC.

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot and the WastewaterSCAN project suggest that COVID-19 levels are at slow declines or plateaus in most parts of the country, but some places may be seeing small increases. Biobot’s dashboard shows slight upticks in the Northeast, Midwest, and West coast regions, as of its March 22 update. 

    Overall, Biobot’s data suggests that national coronavirus concentrations are lower than they’ve been in about a year—but still higher than we’ve seen at this point in 2021 and 2022. The low case numbers that health departments are putting out mask a high baseline of infections, in which many people are not getting PCR tests or reporting their cases to the healthcare system.

    Data from the WastewaterSCAN project suggest that most of the project’s 148 monitoring sites reported downward trends or plateaus in coronavirus levels over the last three weeks. A few places have reported upticks, though, including sites in Kansas, Michigan, South Carolina, Massachusetts, and Oklahoma. 

    One reason for these upticks could be XBB.1.9.1, the latest Omicron subvariant to draw concern among virologists. The CDC started reporting estimates for XBB.1.9.1 in its latest variant update (this Friday): the agency estimates that this variant caused 2.5% of new cases nationwide last week, with higher prevalence (about 13%) in the Midwest region that includes Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska.

    XBB.1.9.1 is doubling “roughly every 8 days,” according to Marc Johnson, a virologist at the University of Missouri who leads the state’s wastewater surveillance program. Johnson predicts that this subvariant will be dominant in the U.S. by the end of April, but it could face competition from XBB.1.16—another descendant of XBB that has been spreading rapidly in India. 

    Could the spread of these XBB sublineages across the U.S. cause a significant rise in cases and hospitalizations? It’s hard to say, given the complex picture of immunity in the country, with millions of people recently infected by a variety of variants. “Future waves are getting harder and harder to forecast,” Katelyn Jetelina wrote in Your Local Epidemiologist this week. Regardless, the same safety measures (masks, testing, etc.) continue to work against all new versions of the virus.

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  • National numbers, March 19

    National numbers, March 19

    New hospital admissions have fallen significantly from their recent peak in January, but are still much higher than at this time last year. Chart from the CDC.

    In the past week (March 9 through 15), the U.S. officially reported about 150,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 21,000 new cases each day
    • 46 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 20% fewer new cases than last week (March 2-8)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 19,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,800 new admissions each day
    • 5.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 10% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 1,700 new COVID-19 deaths (240 per day)
    • 90% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 2% by XBB.1.5.1; 0.5% by CH.1.1 (as of March 18)
    • An average of 40,000 vaccinations per day

    The trend continues: COVID-19 spread is still on the decline across the U.S., but it’s a slow decline. These updates are getting pretty repetitive to write, as we’ve been seeing this pattern since late January—which, honestly, I’m taking as a good sign.

    Last week, I noted that the drop in official COVID-19 cases (reported to the CDC) was exaggerated slightly because of data delays; three states didn’t report cases in the week ending March 8. This week, the same thing happened for three different states: Texas, Arkansas, and Indiana. We’ll likely continue to see reporting issues like this, as state and local health departments put fewer resources into tracking COVID-19.

    Even so, the official case data, hospital admissions, and wastewater surveillance all point to continued decreases in coronavirus transmission. National hospital admissions dropped by about 12% this week compared to the week prior. But there are still a lot of Americans getting severe COVID-19 symptoms, with more than 3,000 people newly hospitalized each week for the last month.

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot suggest that coronavirus spread is getting lower, but it’s still at much higher levels nationally than we saw at this time in 2021 and 2022. Regionally, the Midwest now has slightly more virus circulating than other parts of the country, but all four major regions are seeing slow declines or plateaus.

    In other good news: flu activity is still low nationally, according to the CDC’s flu surveillance. Experts had worried we might see a second flu surge, driven by a different strain of the influenza virus, after the initial surge died down in January. But so far, that hasn’t happened. Almost every state reported moderate or low levels of influenza-like activity in the week ending March 11.

    XBB.1.5 continues to be the dominant coronavirus lineage in the U.S., causing an estimated 90% of cases nationwide in the week ending March 18. XBB.1.5.1, a descendant of XBB.1.5, is growing slowly (it caused an estimated 2% of cases nationwide this week) and doesn’t seem to be very competitive yet. The CDC also has yet to break out XBB.1.9 or XBB.1.16, other subvariants that mutated from XBB.

    Yesterday, I spoke about wastewater surveillance at New York City School of Data, a civic conference that’s part of the city’s Open Data Week. While the conference wasn’t focused on health or science topics, the organizers required masks and checked attendees’ vaccinations. I also brought my CO2 monitor to the event, and found ventilation was generally good in the session rooms. This conference was a nice reminder that some organizations are still following the data and science on COVID-19 precautions.

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  • National numbers, March 12

    National numbers, March 12

    In New York City, where I live, COVID-19 test positivity is the lowest it’s been since early spring 2022. Chart from the NYC health department.

    In the past week (March 2 through 8), the U.S. officially reported about 170,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 24,000 new cases each day
    • 52 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 25% fewer new cases than last week (February 23-March 1)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 20,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,800 new admissions each day
    • 6.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 13% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 1,900 new COVID-19 deaths (270 per day)
    • 90% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 2% by XBB.1.5.1; 1% by CH.1.1 (as of March 11)
    • An average of 50,000 vaccinations per day

    Following the same pattern we’ve seen for the last few weeks, COVID-19 spread is still on the decline nationally. Official case counts, hospital admissions, and wastewater surveillance data all continue to point in this direction.

    This week, the decline in CDC-reported cases was sharper than it’s been in a couple of months (with 25% fewer cases reported than the prior week). But this may be due to reporting issues, rather than an actual change in transmission patterns: the CDC’s case trends page explains that Florida, Washington State, and Utah all did not report cases in the week ending March 8.

    Still, I’m heartened by the fact that hospital admissions—which are reported more reliably—dropped by 13% this week, compared to smaller week-over-week changes over the last month. Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot also continue to show steady declines, though we’re still not close to the national lows observed during this time in 2021 and 2022.

    Biobot’s data suggest declining surveillance in all four major regions of the country, with coronavirus levels in the Northeast now dropping below the Midwest, South, and West coast. Some individual counties in the Midwest are still reporting increased viral concentrations in their wastewater; I specifically noted Sheridan County and Teton County, Wyoming in Biobot’s data.

    Omicron XBB.1.5 has been the dominant variant in the U.S. since mid-January, and we have yet to see a new subvariant rise to meaningfully compete with it. CH.1.1, which has driven increased transmission in other parts of the world, has remained under 2% of new cases nationally, per the CDC’s estimates.

    The CDC’s latest variant update also breaks out XBB.1.5.1, an offshoot of XBB.1.5, at about 2% of new cases nationally. I have yet to see much discussion of this offshoot or how it differs from XBB.1.5; I’ll cover it more in future issues as we learn more. In addition, variant experts are keeping an eye on XBB.1.9, XBB.1.16, and other subvariants that have further mutated from the XBB lineage.

    In his latest Substack newsletter, long-time COVID-19 commentator Eric Topol suggests that the U.S. might be in a welcome “break from COVID-19 waves.” He points to XBB.1.5’s dominance and the fact that its rise “was not associated with a surge of COVID-19 hospitalizations or deaths in the United States or elsewhere in the world” despite the subvariant’s increased capacity to spread.

    At the same time, Topol explains the problem with our current “high baseline” of continued COVID-19 spread, which leads to continued severe cases among vulnerable people and the ongoing risk of Long COVID. He also explores the potential for another Omicron-like event, which would potentially cause another major surge. His article is helpful for understanding our current COVID-19 moment.

    In NYC, where I live, COVID-19 case rates and test positivity are lower than they’ve been since early 2022—while still much higher than we saw last spring post-Omicron BA.1, or in spring 2021 as vaccines were widely rolled out. And the numbers are likely going to get more unreliable soon, as the city begins to wind down public testing sites.

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  • National numbers, March 5

    National numbers, March 5

    Wastewater data from Biobot suggest that COVID-19 spread is still declining throughout the country, but slowly.

    In the past week (February 23 through March 1), the U.S. officially reported about 230,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 32,000 new cases each day
    • 69 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new cases than last week (February 16-22)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 23,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,300 new admissions each day
    • 7.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,300 new COVID-19 deaths (330 per day)
    • 90% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 8% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 1% by CH.1.1 (as of March 4)
    • An average of 50,000 vaccinations per day

    At the national level, major COVID-19 metrics continue to indicate slow declines in transmission. As I’ve been writing for the last few weeks, we’re at a “low tide” point in COVID-19 spread: clearly lower than the peaks that occur after holidays or new variants, but much higher than the baselines that we experienced before the Omicron era.

    Official cases reported by the CDC dropped by 5% last week compared to the week prior, while new hospital admissions dropped by 8%. Wastewater data from Biobot show declining coronavirus levels nationally, but viral concentrations in wastewater are twice as high as they were at this point in 2021 or 2022.

    Biobot’s regional data suggest that the Midwest has overtaken the Northeast in coronavirus concentrations for the first time since late summer 2022. Both regions are seeing declines, but the declining spread in the Northeast has accelerated a bit faster than that in the Midwest.

    While most individual states and counties are reporting COVID-19 declines as well, a few have reported increased coronavirus in their wastewater in recent weeks. This includes counties in Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Florida, Texas, and others in the Midwest and South.

    Omicron XBB.1.5 continues to be the dominant variant in the U.S., now accounting for about 90% of new cases in the last week, per CDC estimates. Viral evolution experts will be watching to see if XBB.1.5 mutates further, or if some other variant arrives to compete with it.

    As we head into the spring, U.S. COVID-19 data continue to get harder to find and less reliable. Last week, the Department of Health and Human Services announced that it would retire its Community Profile Reports, which I used to rely on as a regular source for this newsletter.

    Meanwhile, a study from Denis Nash and his team at the City University of New York that estimated true COVID-19 prevalence during the BA.4/BA.5 surge last summer was recently published in the journal Preventative Medicine. I covered this study when it was released as a preprint last fall, and find it striking that no other estimates like this have emerged since then.

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  • National numbers, February 26

    National numbers, February 26

    According to the CDC’s data on hospital emergency department visits for respiratory viruses, COVID-19 visits have plateaued while flu and RSV have returned to low levels.

    In the past week (February 16 through 22), the U.S. officially reported about 240,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 34,000 new cases each day
    • 72 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 9% fewer new cases than last week (February 9-15)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 25,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,500 new admissions each day
    • 7.5 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,400 new COVID-19 deaths (350 per day)
    • 85% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 12% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 1% by CH.1.1 (as of February 25)
    • An average of 60,000 vaccinations per day

    The national COVID-19 plateau continues. As I’ve been saying for a few weeks now, COVID-19 spread has dropped significantly from its high during the winter holidays, but it has not fallen to the low levels we’ve previously seen this time of year due to a combination of lax precautions and the latest Omicron variant, XBB.1.5.

    Case and hospitalization data from the CDC, along with wastewater surveillance data, all show COVID-19 spread declining—but very slowly. Cases declined by 9% this week compared to the week prior, while new hospital admissions declined by 5%. Biobot’s wastewater surveillance dashboard shows slight declines or plateaus in all four major regions of the country.

    Respiratory virus season is clearly waning in the U.S., according to hospital emergency room visit data from the CDC’s National Syndromic Surveillance Program. ER visits for the flu and RSV have pretty much returned to baseline after their winter peaks. But COVID-19 ER visits have plateaued at a higher level, close to the visit numbers reported in September and October—another sign of the elevated “low tide” we’ve now been dealing with since spring 2022.

    On the variant front: Omicron XBB.1.5 continues to dominate in the U.S. It caused an estimated 85% of new cases nationwide in the week ending February 25, according to the CDC, and is the main variant circulating in every region. After several months of “variant soup” with a number of Omicron subvariants competing, XBB.1.5 has emerged as the clear victor; no other single lineage is causing more than 10% of new cases in the country, per the CDC’s estimates.

    I continue to write about COVID-19 case numbers from the CDC here, mostly because A) the directional patterns (i.e. upticks and downturns) of these data are still a decent representation of actual directional patterns in infections, and B) the CDC’s case numbers are more nationally representative (when it comes to geography) than data from the National Wastewater Surveillance System.

    But I have to stress that these case numbers are increasingly undercounting actual infections. The last decent estimates I’ve seen comparing cases to infections, dated from last fall, suggested that case numbers are undercounted by a factor of 10 to 20. These days, I expect we’re likely closer to a factor of 20, if not higher. As evidence, test positivity for the entire U.S. has been at 10% for a couple of weeks now.

    Other evidence for this continued undercounting comes from wastewater data. From resources like the Biobot dashboard, which compares wastewater surveillance trends to case trends, it’s abundantly clear that these two metrics used to align closely—but now coronavirus levels in wastewater are consistently much higher. In New York City, for example, wastewater data show that the city experienced one of its greatest COVID-19 surges this winter.

    Speaking of unreliable numbers: the team behind the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review has begun to update its readers on how the end of the federal public health emergency will impact COVID-19 data. The first update, published on Friday, explains that some data, including hospitalization and vaccination numbers, “may be reported less frequently” or with new gaps. I anticipate we’ll get more details about this in the coming weeks, as the CDC negotiates new data-sharing requirements with other health agencies.

    The CDC’s data tracking newsletter is also shifting from a weekly newsletter to biweekly, starting March 3. It continues to boggle my mind how I, a single freelance journalist writing this publication in my spare time, am able to keep up more regular data updates than a massive federal agency.

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  • National numbers, February 19

    National numbers, February 19

    COVID-19 hospitalization data from the CDC suggest that new hospital admissions haven’t really dipped below a high baseline since spring 2022.

    In the past week (February 9 through 15), the U.S. officially reported about 260,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 37,000 new cases each day
    • 79 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new cases than last week (February 2-8)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 25,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,500 new admissions each day
    • 7.5 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,800 new COVID-19 deaths (400 per day)
    • 80% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 16% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 1% by CH.1.1 (as of February 18)
    • An average of 70,000 vaccinations per day

    Nationally, official COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to trend slowly downward, suggesting that we’re in a high plateau of consistent virus spread. Reported cases have only declined by about 18% in the last month, while new hospital admissions have declined by 28%.

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot also continue to indicate that COVID-19 spread has plateaued nationally, with slightly different trends at the regional level: a potential uptick in the Northeast, a trend back down in the Midwest, and slight declines in the West and South.

    At the state level, some Midwest states continue to report increases in their COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. These states include: Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, Utah, Nebraska, Michigan, and Missouri. (Though the wastewater decline could indicate that these trends in clinical case data may turn around soon.)

    As I pointed out last week, the current COVID-19 plateau is unique from what the U.S. experienced around this time in 2022 and 2021. In both of those years, virus spread declined significantly after a winter surge, leading to relatively low levels in the spring. But this year, the decline has been shorter and has stopped earlier, leaving us with continued high COVID-19.

    Biobot’s communications team pointed out on Twitter recently that the national average of coronavirus concentrations in wastewater is “about 60% higher than it was at this time in 2022” and “almost two times what it was at this time in 2021.”

    Why isn’t transmission declining more? The XBB.1.5 could be playing a role here, as it spreads further across the country. This highly-contagious version of Omicron accounted for about 80% of new cases in the U.S. last week, according to the CDC’s estimates, and is now heavily dominant in almost every region of the country.

    But I suspect a bigger culprit here is likely the complete lack of COVID-19 safety protocols right now. In spring 2021, first-round vaccines and continued non-pharmaceutical interventions played a big role in preventing disease, while in 2022, the U.S. had a lot of immunity from vaccinations and the recent, massive Omicron BA.1 surge, combined with some continuation of other measures. (Though that immunity quickly faded when BA.2 came on the scene.)

    Now, we have less population immunity, less non-pharmaceutical interventions, and less overall awareness of the continued problems posed by COVID-19. This broad apathy towards the coronavirus hides the fact that over 400 people are still dying from this disease every day.

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  • National numbers, February 12

    National numbers, February 12

    National COVID-19 cases have reached a plateau. Note that the cases reported to the CDC are a significant undercount of actual infections.

    In the past week (February 2 through 8), the U.S. officially reported about 280,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 40,000 new cases each day
    • 86 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% fewer new cases than last week (January 26-February 1)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 26,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,700 new admissions each day
    • 7.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 3,200 new COVID-19 deaths (450 per day)
    • 75% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 20% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 1% by CH.1.1 (as of February 11)
    • An average of 80,000 vaccinations per day

    Nationwide, COVID-19 spread appears to be in a plateau: not substantially increasing, but not substantially decreasing, either. Officially-reported cases dropped by only 1% this week compared to the week prior, while wastewater data shows that the coronavirus concentration in our sewage hasn’t changed significantly for the last month.

    Hospitalizations continue to decline for flu and RSV as well as COVID-19, according to the CDC’s data from emergency departments. But the COVID-19 decline has slowed, remaining consistent at a higher level than the flu and RSV declines. About 3,700 people were newly hospitalized for COVID-19 every day last week.

    At the regional level, COVID-19 spread is still declining (from a relatively higher winter peak) in the Northeast, and is solidly in a plateau in the South and West, per Biobot’s regional data. The Midwest reported a slight uptick this past week, continuing a trend that I noted in last weekend’s National Numbers.

    Some of the highest case, wastewater, and hospitalization increases reported right now are coming from the upper Midwest: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Idaho. COVID-19 spread is also trending up in Alabama, Kansas, New Hampshire, and West Virginia, along with other states in the Midwest and South, per the latest Community Profile Report.

    Omicron XBB.1.5, the latest and most contagious version of the virus, is spreading across these regions and may be contributing to increased cases. According to the CDC’s latest estimates, XBB.1.5 now accounts for more than half of new cases in every region of the country, and about 75% of new cases nationwide.

    No other variants are trending up right now; XBB.1.5 has solidly outcompeted the rest of the “variant soup” in the U.S. Experts will doubtless be watching for this subvariant to further evolve, while we also look out for any new variants from other parts of the world.

    Meanwhile, the daily average of new COVID-19 vaccinations in the U.S. has dropped under 100,000 for the first time since the country’s vaccination campaign started in winter 2020. New booster doses continue to be heavily underutilized.

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  • National numbers, February 5

    National numbers, February 5

    XBB.1.5, the Omicron lineage that’s been dominant in the Northeast for several weeks now, is spreading through the rest of the country. Chart from the CDC, estimates as of February 3.

    In the past week (January 26 through February 1), the U.S. officially reported about 280,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 40,000 new cases each day
    • 86 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 7% fewer new cases than last week (January 19-25)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 27,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,900 new admissions each day
    • 8.4 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 3,500 new COVID-19 deaths (500 per day)
    • 66% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 27% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 2% by CH.1.1 (as of February 4)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day

    COVID-19 spread in the U.S. continues to decline—but the decline continues to get slower, following the trend that I wrote about last week. Official COVID-19 cases, hospital admissions, and wastewater surveillance all indicate decreased transmission, leading into potential plateaus.

    New hospital admissions for COVID-19, for example, decreased by 8% this week (ending February 1) compared to the prior week (ending January 25). This is a smaller decrease than the prior two weeks, when admissions went down by 13% and 18%. Overall, new hospitalizations are at a similar level to what the U.S. faced in early summer 2022, as BA.5 started spreading across the country.

    Wastewater surveillance from Biobot suggests that COVID-19 spread is decreasing in all four major regions. But the decrease is steeper in the Northeast and South than it is in the Midwest and West coast, suggesting potential plateaus in the latter regions. Wastewater data from the CDC continues to show decreased transmission in about half of sites reporting to the agency and increased transmission in the other half.

    Where is COVID-19 spread increasing right now? Some northern Midwest states are reporting the most significant upticks. According to the latest Community Profile Report, new COVID-19 hospitalizations went up last week in South Dakota, Idaho, and Minnesota. Wastewater monitoring sites in Idaho and Minnesota also reported increased coronavirus concentrations, according to the WastewaterSCAN project.

    In the Midwest and West coast, Omicron subvariant XBB.1.5 continues to outcompete other versions of the virus. Per the CDC’s estimates, it accounted for about 44% of new cases in the region including the Dakotas and Minnesota this week, compared to 32% last week. XBB.1.5 already dominates the East coast, so its rise in the rest of the country could be one reason why COVID-19 is starting to go up again.

    Nationally, XBB.1.5 caused about two-thirds of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. last week, according to the CDC’s estimates. It’s the only variant on the rise right now, as it drives out the BQ lineage and others. CH.1.1, the subvariant currently spreading fast in the U.K. and other countries, is less of a threat in the U.S. so far (at under 2% of new cases).

    While XBB.1.5 contributes to new infections across the country, the number of Americans who’ve received an updated booster shot remains stubbornly low. Only 52 million people have received the Omicron-specific booster, representing just 20% of the eligible population, according to CDC data.

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  • National numbers, January 29

    National numbers, January 29

    Biobot’s regional data suggest that most of the country is seeing declining COVID-19 spread, but we’re heading into high plateaus.

    In the past week (January 19 through 25), the U.S. officially reported about 300,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 42,000 new cases each day
    • 90 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 11% fewer new cases than last week (January 12-18)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 30,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 4,200 new admissions each day
    • 9.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 14% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 3,800 new COVID-19 deaths (540 per day)
    • 61% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 31% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 2% by CH.1.1 (as of January 28)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day

    At the national level, COVID-19 spread appears to be approaching another plateau. New cases and hospitalizations (as reported by the CDC) are still in decline, but their descent is slowing: reported cases dropped by 11% this week, compared to 24% last week.

    Wastewater surveillance presents the same trends. National data from Biobot suggest that COVID-19 transmission is leveling out in a similar place to where we were in October and November 2022, before the holiday surge drove up spread.

    Biobot’s regional data show a slowing decline in the Northeast, plateaus in the Midwest and South, and a somewhat-more-pronounced decline in the West. And wastewater surveillance data from the CDC shows that COVID-19 spread is going up in some places, down in others: out of about 1,000 sites reporting data in the last two weeks, 48% reported decreases in coronavirus levels while 40% reported increases.

    Unlike in recent weeks where every state has reported declines in COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations, a few places are now reporting definitive upticks, according to the latest Community Profile Report. These states include Alaska, Vermont, Maine, South Dakota, North Dakota, Nevada, Oklahoma, Minnesota, and Indiana.

    Why might some states report COVID-19 upticks just after we emerged from a surge over the holidays? One explanation could be the XBB.1.5 variant, which continues to outcompete other Omicron lineages. XBB.1.5 now comprises about 60% of new cases nationwide (according to the CDC’s estimates); while it is most dominant in the Northeast, it’s growing—and likely reinfecting people—in other regions.

    The CDC’s latest variant estimates also now include Omicron CH.1.1, which has been connected to rising cases in the U.K. and New Zealand in recent months. Per the CDC, CH.1.1 has been present in the U.S. at low levels (like, 1% or less) for a few weeks now, without posing a major challenge to XBB.1.5. But it is still a variant worth keeping an eye on.

    As flu and RSV cases continue to trend down, the U.S. is confronted with the final weeks of a respiratory disease-heavy winter that was pretty rough on our healthcare system—but fell short of the mind-boggling case numbers that we saw in the prior two winters. Yes, we didn’t see a repeat of “the first Omicron wave”; but still, millions of people got sick, thousands died. Many will likely experience Long COVID as a consequence of their infections this winter.

    Is this an acceptable baseline for future winters? Or should we do better? (This recent article in The Atlantic by Katherine Wu expands on the problem of expectations, and makes a case for doing better.)

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