COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: National numbers

  • National numbers, September 3

    National numbers, September 3

    COVID-19 data from WastewaterSCAN suggest that coronavirus spread is still trending up nationwide.

    During the most recent week of data available (August 13-19), the U.S. reported about 15,100 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,200 new admissions each day
    • 4.6 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 19% more new admissions than the prior week (August 6-12)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 14.9% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 3% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of August 30, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 23% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 22% by EG.5; 15% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 2)

    The late-summer COVID-19 surge is still in full swing, with all major metrics showing further increases in disease spread this week. BA.2.86 isn’t spreading widely yet but is worth continued surveillance.

    Last week, I wrote that wastewater data from Biobot Analytics showed a potential plateau—but cautioned those data were tentative. Unfortunately, further updates this week suggest that COVID-19 transmission is still increasing, albeit not as dramatically as it was in July.

    Data from WastewaterSCAN show a similar pattern: a sharp increase in COVID-19 spread from late June through July, followed by a slight leveling off, and then followed by further increase. This could be caused by a newer variant entering the picture, driven by behaviors, or (most likely) some combination of the two.

    Regional data from both Biobot and WastewaterSCAN indicate that COVID-19 transmission might be approaching plateaus in the South and Midwest, but is going up sharply in the Northeast and West coast. The Midwest, after showing decreases in Biobot’s data over recent weeks, is now trending up again.

    The CDC’s test positivity and hospitalization numbers continue to rise as well. New hospital admissions for COVID-19 reached 2,000 per day during the week ending August 19, and are likely still higher now. Test positivity is up to 15%, the highest this metric has been since last winter’s holiday surge.

    In the CDC’s latest variant estimates (posted on Saturday), EG.5 and XBB.1.6 continue to dominate in a crowded landscape of Omicron XBB relatives. The agency hasn’t yet found enough BA.2.86 for this new variant to be included in the update. However, this could indicate low testing rather than an actual low prevalence of BA.2.86.

    The CDC often takes COVID-19 reporting breaks over holiday weekends, and this one is no exception: the agency will not update its dashboard on Monday, according to a note posted at the top of the page. Hospitalizations, test positivity, and other metrics will be updated later in the week.

    Of course, the coronavirus doesn’t care about holidays—in fact, it usually spreads more widely when people travel and gather. Fully understanding this Labor Day weekend’s impact could take several weeks, at our current pace of data reporting.

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  • National numbers, August 27

    National numbers, August 27

    Biobot’s wastewater surveillance data suggest a potential plateau in COVID-19 spread, though future weeks of data will be needed to say for sure.

    During the most recent week of data available (August 6-12), the U.S. reported about 12,600 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,800 new admissions each day
    • 3.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 22% more new admissions than the prior week (July 30-August 5)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 13.4% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 1% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of August 23, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 21% by EG.5; 11% by XBB.2.3; 13% by FL.1.5.1 (as of August 19)

    This week, our limited COVID-19 data picture suggests that transmission may be starting to level off. But if BA.2.86 or another newer variant enters this high-spread environment, the outlook could get less rosy.

    One sign of a possible plateau: Biobot’s national wastewater surveillance dashboard shows a very slight downward trend, with SARS-CoV-2 levels dropping by about 1% from August 16 to August 23. This is based on just one week of data, though, so we’ll have to see what further updates show.

    Biobot’s regional data similarly show potential good trends: the Midwest appears to have passed the peak during this surge, as of the last two weeks, while the South and Northeast also show slight plateaus. Coronavirus levels are still trending up in the West, but less intensely.

    Data from both Biobot and WastewaterSCAN suggest that COVID-19 spread has turned a corner in some Midwest sewersheds, such as Johnson County, Kansas; Lawrence, Kansas; Lonoke County, Arkansas; Lincoln, Nebraska; and Warren, Michigan. Still, more data are needed to see if these trends hold.

    Test positivity data from the CDC’s respiratory surveillance network also suggest that COVID-19 spread may be slowing. After a rapid rise through July, test positivity increased by just 8% in the most recent week of data (ending August 19), from 12.4% to 13.4%. This is still a high overall positivity rate, though, especially considering how difficult PCR tests are to access these days.

    Hospitalizations continue to rise as well: the CDC reported a 22% increase in new COVID-19 patients from the week ending August 5 to the week ending August 12. While hospitalizations are significantly delayed compared to other metrics, these data show one of the surge’s severe impacts. We have even less data about Long COVID, the other main severe impact.

    BA.2.86, a new variant that scientists are watching closely, isn’t yet impacting transmission in the U.S. based on our current data. But it could lead to another increase in cases, if it proves able to outcompete the now-dominant group of XBB variants. (More on BA.2.86 later in today’s issue.)

    Remember: new variants don’t appear magically out of nowhere. People encourage their evolution, by allowing the virus to continue spreading unchecked. In addition to protecting ourselves and our communities, COVID-19 safety measures help to prevent further mutation.

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  • National numbers, August 20

    National numbers, August 20

    While the rise in hospitalizations has been modest, test positivity is on a similar level to the last couple of surges, per the CDC. Data as of August 18.

    During the most recent week of data available (July 30 through August 5), the U.S. reported about 10,300 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,500 new admissions each day
    • 3.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 14% more new admissions than the prior week (July 23-29)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 12.2% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 10% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of August 16, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 21% by EG.5; 11% by XBB.2.3; 13% by FL.1.5.1 (as of August 19)

    The summer COVID-19 surge continues. While wastewater surveillance data suggest that transmission trends may be turning around in some places, the virus is largely still increasing across the U.S. New variants are on the horizon, too.

    Nationally, coronavirus levels in wastewater are the highest they’ve been since last winter’s holiday surge, according to data from Biobot Analytics. Viral concentrations have tripled since mid-June, and continue to follow a similar pattern to the Delta surge that we experienced at about the same time in summer 2021.

    Biobot’s regional data suggest that the Midwest—which reported a serious spike last week—may have turned a corner in this surge, with viral levels going into a plateau. This pattern is based on just one week of data, though, so we’ll have to see what next week’s numbers show.

    Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN similarly show continued increases in COVID-19 spread. Some counties in Southern states, such as Florida, Georgia, and Alabama, are reporting particularly large upticks. Hawaii may be a state to watch, too, as residents face health access challenges following the recent wildfires.

    Test positivity also continues to increase, with the CDC reporting that about 12% of COVID-19 tests reported to its respiratory network returned positive results in the week ending August 16. Hospital admissions and emergency department visits are still going up as well, though these metrics are reported with two-week delays.

    The CDC updated its variant data this week, reporting that Omicron EG.5 continues to outcompete other XBB lineages. EG.5 doesn’t have a huge advantage in transmission, though, so it’s increasing relatively slowly amid a sea of other similar variants.

    But a new variant, called BA.2.86, may be one to watch more closely. Health officials are on the alert after seeing just a few cases in the U.S., Israel, and Denmark due to a number of mutations in this variant’s spike protein, which diverge significantly from other strains. (More on this variant later in today’s issue.)

    While the CDC says it’s monitoring this new variant, the agency’s genomic surveillance is far sparser than it was a year or two ago. The agency and its research partners are now sequencing under 5,000 coronavirus samples a week, compared to almost 100,000 a week at the height of Omicron. With this small sample pool, the CDC is less equipped to catch BA.2.86, or any other variants that may arise.

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  • National numbers, August 13

    National numbers, August 13

    Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics suggest that coronavirus levels in the Northeast and South may be leveling off, while the Midwest is seeing a major spike.

    During the most recent week of data available (July 23 through 29), the U.S. reported about 9,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,300 new admissions each day
    • 2.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 13% more new admissions than the prior week (July 16-22)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 10.6% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 9% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of August 9, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 31% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 17% by EG.5; 11% by XBB.2.3; 10% by XBB.1.9 (as of August 5)

    All major COVID-19 metrics continue to increase in the U.S., as we deal with a late-summer surge. Wastewater surveillance suggests that current virus spread is on pace with the Delta surge in 2021, though other data sources are less reliable these days.

    Wastewater data from Biobot continue to show an uptick nationally, following the same upward trend that started in late June. The CDC’s wastewater surveillance system and WastewaterSCAN network report similar trends.

    Biobot’s regional data suggest that the Northeast and South, the first two regions to see COVID-19 increases this summer, might be approaching their peaks, but it’s too early to say for sure. Regional test positivity numbers, from the CDC, show no sign of slowing their rise.

    Meanwhile, COVID-19 spread is going way up in the Midwest, per Biobot and WastewaterSCAN. Some sewersheds in Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, and nearby states have reported their viral levels in wastewater more than doubling over the last couple of weeks.

    Test positivity nationwide is now over 10%, per the latest data from the CDC’s respiratory virus testing network. Walgreens’ COVID-19 dashboard, which displays testing data from its pharmacies (i.e. a smaller sample size than the CDC network), reports a record high: of about 2,400 COVID-19 tests conducted in the week ending August 6, 45% were positive.

    Hospital admissions for COVID-19 are also on the rise, with about 1,300 new hospitalizations for COVID-19 each day in the week ending July 29, per the CDC. While it’s true that these numbers are far lower than peaks during prior surges, the data are also less reliable now— with fewer hospitals reporting to the CDC and fewer measures in those hospitals (like masking) to control infections.

    A lot of articles in the last couple of weeks have connected the recent surge to EG.5, the latest Omicron subvariant gaining ground in the U.S. However, this variant is not necessarily causing the surge; it doesn’t seem to be meaningfully more contagious or more severe than other recent strains, scientists are finding.

    Rather than a variant, I would personally attribute this surge to summer travel and gatherings, combined with waning immunity—it’s been many months since most Americans had contact with the virus through vaccination or infection.

    All of the virus-spreading activities going on right now will give SARS-CoV-2 more avenues to mutate. And there are other variants circulating globally that could cause more problems in the U.S. as well, as Eric Topol outlines in a recent Substack post. The next booster can’t come soon enough.

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  • National numbers, August 6

    National numbers, August 6

    Test positivity is way up in the U.S., while hospitalizations are starting to follow this trend. Chart via the CDC.

    During the most recent week of data available (July 16 through 22), the U.S. reported about 8,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,150 new admissions each day
    • 2.4 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 12% more new admissions than the prior week (July 9-15)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 8.9% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 10% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of August 2, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 31% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 17% by EG.5; 11% by XBB.2.3; 10% by XBB.1.9 (as of August 5)

    Over the last few weeks, the signals of a summer COVID-19 surge in the U.S. have grown steadily clearer. Viral levels in wastewater, test positivity, and hospitalizations are all climbing across the country.

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot suggest that coronavirus levels have doubled nationally in the last month. The surge is impacting all major regions of the country; the Northeast and South saw earlier increases, but the Midwest and West Coast are now catching up.

    The CDC’s wastewater surveillance network also points to increasing COVID-19 spread, with sites across the country reporting higher viral levels. While wastewater surveillance remains uneven (some states are testing in every county, others in just a handful of locations), it still gives us enough information to identify a widespread surge.

    Test positivity from the CDC’s lab testing network shows continued increases as well. About 8.9% of COVID-19 tests reported to the agency returned positive results in the week ending July 29, compared to 4.5% in the week ending June 24. This increase, too, is consistent across regions.

    Hospitalizations for COVID-19 are also going up, according to the CDC. These data are significantly delayed, with the most recent numbers dating to about two weeks ago. So, while overall patient numbers remain low right now, I expect they will continue to rise as the surge goes on.

    The coronavirus’ continued evolution is likely playing a role in this summer’s increased spread, as are summer travel and waning immunity from past vaccinations. Omicron EG.5, a descendant of the XBB.1.9 lineage, is the latest variant to spread widely, according to the CDC’s estimates.

    No one version of XBB has yet shown a significant ability to spread much faster or cause more severe symptoms than other variants. Rather, many iterations of this Omicron lineage are spreading in tandem, continuing to mutate with every infection. And with fewer PCR tests happening, it’s harder for health agencies to keep track.

    This summer’s surge may be less visible than ever. But wastewater data suggest we’re seeing similar levels of COVID-19 spread as we saw with Delta in summer 2021. Precautions are still important!

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  • National numbers, July 30

    National numbers, July 30

    COVID-19 is spreading more in all regions of the country, according to Biobot’s data. Data as of July 27, based on samples collected the week of July 24.

    During the most recent week of data available (July 9 through 15), the U.S. reported about 7,100 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,000 new admissions each day
    • 2.2 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 10% more new admissions than the prior week (July 2-8)

      Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 7.6% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 17% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of July 26, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 24% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 19% by XBB.1.9; 13% by XBB.2.3 (as of July 22)

    Several major metrics continue to point to a summer increase in COVID-19 spread. Coronavirus levels in wastewater are up in all major regions, as is test positivity from the CDC’s network. Hospitalizations have started ticking up as well.

    Nationally, coronavirus levels in wastewater have doubled in the last month, according to Biobot Analytics. Viral levels are on par with this period in summer 2021, at the start of that year’s Delta surge, and are the highest they’ve been since this year’s holiday surge concluded.

    Data from the WastewaterSCAN network similarly shows COVID-19 upticks in the last month, though the team’s latest national update notes that current levels are still low compared to the start of 2023. WastewaterSCAN recently added national wastewater levels to its dashboard, making it easier to track broad trends from this sewage testing network.

    Test positivity data from the CDC’s respiratory lab network are still increasing as well. National test positivity was 7.6% in the week ending July 22, compared to 4.5% about a month ago, an increase of about 70%.

    The CDC’s hospitalization data are also showing an increase now: new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals went up by about 10% from the week ending July 8 to the week ending July 15. These are the most recent hospitalization numbers available, as the CDC is still reporting this metric with a delay.

    Wastewater and positivity data suggest that COVID-19 spread is increasing in all major regions of the country. All regions are also dealing with the virus’ continued evolution, as a variety of XBB lineages circulate and compete with each other.

    Several national publications reported on these COVID-19 increases in the last week, pointing to the potential for a summer surge. I personally liked this article from Dylan Scott at Vox, which also covers implications for COVID-19 this winter.

    But the COVID-19 Data Dispatch was on this potential surge weeks before any mainstream media news site. If you appreciate our early warnings, please donate to support this work!

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  • National numbers, July 23

    National numbers, July 23

    A wide variety of XBB-related Omicron variants are competing across the U.S. Data from the CDC, as of July 22.

    During the most recent week of data available (July 2 through 8), the U.S. reported about 6,200 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 900 new admissions each day
    • 1.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% fewer new admissions than the prior week (June 25-July 1)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 6.3% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 9% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of July 19, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 24% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 19% by XBB.1.9; 13% by XBB.2.3 (as of July 22)

    COVID-19 data in the U.S. is showing increasingly clear signs of a summer surge, with infections rising across the country. However, thanks to the federal public health emergency’s end, we have less and less data to track this trend.

    Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics show that national coronavirus levels have gone up by about 68% in the last month. Current levels are far below this time last year (when the Omicron BA.4/BA.5 surge was in full swing), but still at their highest in several months.

    Biobot’s regional data suggest that the COVID-19 uptick is hitting all major regions. But the increases have been most pronounced in the Northeast and South; coronavirus levels have doubled in both regions in the last month, per Biobot.

    The CDC’s wastewater surveillance network has picked up these increases as well, with more than half of testing sites in this network (with recent data) reporting coronavirus upticks in the last two weeks. Some major cities, such as Boston and Los Angeles, are also reflecting the increase.

    Test positivity data from the CDC also show the increasing COVID-19 spread: nationally, test positivity from the labs in the agency’s surveillance network has gone up from 4.3% one month ago to 6.3% in the most recent week of data. The most prominent increases for this metric are similarly in the Northeast and South, and in the health region including Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Alaska.

    One metric not yet showing an increase is the CDC’s hospital admissions data. But the agency has continued to report these data with a lag: as of today, the most recent hospitalization numbers are as of July 8, two weeks ago. The CDC has yet to provide a clear explanation for this reporting lag.

    Either way, the data we do have give us sufficient warnings about this summer’s uptick in COVID-19 spread. One likely culprit is the continued evolution of Omicron XBB: about 15 different subvariants are currently competing, according to the CDC’s latest data. No variant seems to be a clear winner yet.

    Regardless of which variant comes to dominate next, the same safety measures continue to work against COVID-19.

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  • National numbers, July 16

    National numbers, July 16

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot indicate that three out of four major U.S. regions are experiencing increased COVID-19 spread.

    In the past week (July 2 through 8), the CDC did not update COVID-19 hospitalization data for unclear reasons. During the most recent week of data available (June 25 through July 1), the U.S. reported about 6,200 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 900 new admissions each day
    • 1.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% fewer new admissions than the prior week (June 18-24)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 5.5% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 13% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of July 12, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 32% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 15% by XBB.1.9; 13% by XBB.2.3 (as of July 8)

    National COVID-19 data are showing signs of a summer uptick in infections across multiple regions. Newer variants, summer travel, and holidays are likely contributing to this increase, though it’s hard to say if we will see a real surge or a continued shifting of the U.S.’s high COVID-19 baseline.

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot Analytics show a significant uptick in coronavirus levels over the last month, with an increase of about 50% from June 14 to July 12. Three out of four major U.S. regions (the Northeast, South, and West Coast) report notable increases, while the Midwest reports a slower uptick.

    The CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) is not yet showing a pronounced increase. Of the testing sites in this network that reported data in the last two weeks, about half reported upticks while the others reported declines or plateaus. However, NWSS data tend to be updated on a more delayed schedule than Biobot’s dashboard, since the CDC compiles information from a number of state and local health agencies.

    As epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers points out in her Substack post describing the wastewater trend, COVID-19 summer waves in the U.S. tend to start in the South. Some experts attribute this to more indoor summer activities in the region, but there’s little data to back this up, Rivers writes. Plus, this year, the summer uptick has appeared to start in multiple regions of the country at the same time.

    In addition to the wastewater data, test positivity data from the CDCs National Respiratory and Enteric Virus Surveillance System (NREVSS) show a similar uptick in the last month: from 4.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results in the week ending June 10 to 5.5% in the week ending July 8. Remember, this NREVSS doesn’t share data from all PCR tests done in the U.S. (as the CDC no longer has authority to collect this information); but it is set up to provide national and regional estimates.

    According to NREVSS, COVID-19 test positivity is going up in several major regions, including New York and New Jersey, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, the Gulf Coast, and the Northwest. All of these regions are dealing with the Omicron XBB variant’s continued evolution; in the CDC’s most recent variant update on July 8, the agency listed 12 different XBB subvariants competing for hosts.

    The CDC failed to update its COVID-19 hospitalization data this week, so the most recent available data are from the week ending July 1. Typically, the agency’s data scientists will add notes to their dashboard explaining update delays or errors, but this week, I couldn’t find anything.

    As I wrote on June 25: sometimes, I wonder if the CDC doesn’t think anyone is checking their dashboard anymore. But we are! COVID-19 data may be more limited than ever, but we still have enough information to know when cases are ticking up again—and we know the measures needed to protect ourselves and our communities.

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  • National numbers, June 25

    National numbers, June 25

    Wastewater data from Boston show some small increases and decreases in transmission this spring, reflecting our uncertain baseline.

    In the past week (June 11 through 17), the CDC did not update COVID-19 hospitalization data due to changes in its reporting process.

    During the most recent week of data available (June 4 through 10), the U.S. reported about 6,600 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 950 new admissions each day
    • 2.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than the prior week (May 28-June 3)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 4.0% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 16% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of June 21, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 30% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 24% by XBB.1.9; 11% by XBB.2.3 (as of June 24)

    The CDC failed to update its primary COVID-19 metrics this week, so I have no national updates to share about hospital admissions, deaths, or test positivity. The most recent available data from the agency and wastewater surveillance sources suggest that the U.S. is still experiencing a transmission plateau.

    According to the CDC’s dashboard, the agency didn’t update its hospitalization data “due to a change in required reporting cadence from daily to weekly,” following the end of the public health emergency in May. The dashboard note is a bit unclear, but I’m assuming this refers to a change in requirements for state public health departments reporting to the CDC, as the national agency lost its authority to require daily data reporting when the PHE ended.

    Still, it’s confusing to me that the CDC’s dashboard note only refers to hospitalization data, because deaths, test positivity, and other metrics also weren’t updated this week. These data points don’t rely on state reporting systems, so they shouldn’t be impacted by the reporting change.

    Either the note is incomplete, or the CDC staff in charge of this dashboard took an issue with one metric as an excuse not to update several metrics. I don’t love the outcome either way. Like, do they think nobody is checking this dashboard? Because we still are.

    Anyway, the CDC’s most recent data (from the week of June 10, now about three weeks ago), suggested that the U.S. was in a continued COVID-19 plateau, with hospital admissions and test positivity from the CDC’s surveillance network declining very slightly. 

    Wastewater data from Biobot Analytics indicates a similar plateau at the national level. Regionally, the Northeast and West coast experienced slight upticks in COVID-19 spread in the last few weeks, but the coronavirus levels in their wastewater now appear to be trending back down. (These are small changes, though, compared to what we’ve seen in past surges.)

    The sewage in Boston and New York City, two large Northeast cities that are often bellwethers for larger COVID-19 trends, similarly slow slight viral increases in May followed by downturns in June. NYC data are delayed by up to two weeks, though, so take this with a grain of salt.

    The CDC did update its variant estimates this week, showing that XBB.1.5 is now causing less than one-third of cases nationwide. XBB.1.6 and its relatives are now the most popular lineages in the U.S., causing a combined 30% of new cases in the two weeks ending June 24. Other XBB variants, including XBB.1.6 and XBB.2.3, are also on the rise.

    As health agencies put fewer and fewer resources into tracking COVID-19, the data we still have show continued severe ramifications for this disease’s unchecked spread. This disease still kills over 100 people per day.

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  • National numbers, June 18

    National numbers, June 18

    COVID-19 hospital admissions and test positivity (from a select number of labs) are both trending slightly down. Chart from the CDC.

    In the past week (June 4 through 10), the U.S. reported about 6,600 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 950 new admissions each day
    • 2.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than last week (May 28-June 3)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 4.0% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive (a 5% decrease from last week)
    • A 5% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of June 14, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 40% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 26% by XBB.1.16; 21% by XBB.1.9 (as of June 10)

    Overall, the national COVID-19 picture remains fairly similar to what we’ve seen for the last few weeks. The U.S. is at a plateau of COVID-19 spread; we could see an increase this summer, but limited data make it hard to say for sure.

    New hospitalizations for COVID-19 continue to trend slightly down, with just under 1,000 patients admitted each day nationwide. This is the first time that the U.S. has passed this low benchmark since early in the pandemic, and suggests the protective value of vaccinations and prior infections for preventing severe symptoms.

    Biobot Analytics resolved the data issue I mentioned last week and provided updated wastewater numbers, also showing a continued (though slight) downward trend. Current national coronavirus levels are far below this time last year, when Omicron BA.2 variants were spreading widely, though they’re still above prior low points in 2020 and 2021.

    Biobot’s regional data also show mostly plateaus, though coronavirus levels may be increasing very slightly in the Northeast. The CDC’s wastewater data also suggest some places in the Northeast may be seeing increased viral spread, but it’s difficult to identify a clear regional trend.

    Trends from the CDC’s lab testing network similarly show a potential increase in COVID-19 spread in the Northeast over the last couple of weeks, though this testing trend has yet to translate to higher hospitalizations. In New York City, some of the sewersheds that reported recent coronavirus upticks now appear to be trending back down.

    Is a summer surge coming for the Northeast, and then the rest of the country? Right now, it’s quite hard to say; signals from wastewater and testing data are mixed, sometimes delayed, and tough to interpret in the short term. I’ll be watching closely to see how this changes in the coming weeks.

    Meanwhile, it’s important to remember that data are especially limited when it comes to Long COVID, one of the most severe (and most likely) impacts of coronavirus infection. As testing becomes less and less accessible, fewer people will recognize their infections—and, as a result, they may be less likely to recognize later symptoms as Long COVID. But those symptoms can still occur, and cause lasting damage.

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