COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: National numbers

  • National numbers, November 12

    National numbers, November 12

    Biobot’s COVID-19 dashboard shows that coronavirus levels in wastewater have increased over the last two weeks.

    During the most recent week of data available (October 22-28), the U.S. reported about 15,700 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,200 new admissions each day
    • 4.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 0.1% more new admissions than the prior week (October 15-21)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 9% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 7% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of November 1, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron HV.1, 22% by EG.5, 17% by XBB.1.6, 12% by FL.1.5.1 (as of October 28)

    Most of the numbers above are exactly copied from last week’s National Numbers post, as the CDC didn’t update its COVID-19 dashboard this week. Honestly, I have no idea why a single-day holiday (i.e. Veteran’s Day yesterday) might lead a national health agency to postpone its data updates for an entire week, but I’m sure this won’t be the last time it happens.

    The new data we do have this week, mainly from wastewater dashboards, suggest that COVID-19 spread is increasing slightly along with other respiratory viruses. Data from Biobot and WastewaterSCAN show upticks in the last two weeks, following the declining spread from September through the end of October.

    Biobot’s dashboard shows that the concentration of coronavirus in U.S. sewersheds has gone up about 13% on average nationally, from October 18 through November 1. Coronavirus levels are currently highest in the Midwest, with the West Coast and South showing signs of increasing spread while the Northeast is in a plateau.

    WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard presents a similar picture: the Midwest currently has high coronavirus levels, according to WWSCAN’s thresholds, while the other regions have moderate levels. This dashboard shows rising COVID-19 transmission in the Midwest and South as well, with cities like Warren, Michigan, Lincoln, Nebraska, and Arkon, Ohio reporting significant increases in recent weeks.

    COVID-19 isn’t the only virus spreading a lot right now, according to WWSCAN and the CDC. The CDC said in its most recent flu surveillance report that this seasonal virus is increasing throughout the country, though it hasn’t yet reached typical flu season levels. This report was published over a week ago, on November 3, but it seems likely that the trend has continued this week.

    Both wastewater surveillance and the CDC’s influenza-like activity surveillance, which tracks doctors’ visits for respiratory symptoms, suggest that the South is seeing increased spread of several viruses: COVID-19, flu, RSV, norovirus. Norovirus and RSV in particular are at high levels nationwide, according to WWSCAN.

    Similar safety measures—masks, testing, improved ventilation, getting vaccinated—protect against many common diseases. Recent data from the CDC show that many people are, at least, getting vaccinated, though vaccination rates are currently much higher for flu than COVID-19 among both adults and children. (Public health agencies clearly have some work to do there.)

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, November 5

    National numbers, November 5

    National maps from WastewaterSCAN, showing recent trends in COVID-19 and other viruses.

    During the most recent week of data available (October 22-28), the U.S. reported about 15,700 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,200 new admissions each day
    • 4.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 0.1% more new admissions than the prior week (October 15-21)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 9% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 6% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of October 25, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron HV.1, 22% by EG.5, 17% by XBB.1.6, 12% by FL.1.5.1 (as of October 28)

    After an early-fall lull in COVID-19 transmission, there are now signs that the coronavirus is starting to spread more as we head into winter (or, respiratory virus season). This slight uptick is expected, but could still be prevented if we had better public health measures in place.

    Wastewater surveillance data from both Biobot Analytics and WastewaterSCAN suggest that COVID-19 spread might be increasing again. Biobot’s dashboard shows a 6% increase in sewage coronavirus levels nationally between October 18 and October 25, the most recent week of data available.

    WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard similarly shows a slight increase in coronavirus levels, as of October 30. Regional data from both sources suggest that the Northeast and Midwest are seeing more COVID-19 spread than other regions at the moment, though the South might catch up in the coming weeks.

    As I’ve discussed over the last couple of weeks, we are currently working with limited wastewater surveillance data: 400 sewage testing sites, about one-quarter of the CDC’s wastewater network, are currently in limbo while government officials navigate a potential switch between testing contractors. (See last week’s National Numbers and my original coverage of the new contract.) Still, we have enough information to identify national trends from wastewater.

    Along with the wastewater surveillance data, hospitalization data reported by the CDC show a very slight increase in COVID-19 patients as of October 28. Test positivity and emergency department visits have plateaued after declines over the course of October, as seen in both the CDC’s data and the Walgreens dashboard (which provides data from testing done at this pharmacy chain).

    COVID-19 isn’t the only respiratory disease spreading right now. RSV transmission has picked up, according to the CDC’s surveillance: hospitalization rates for this disease have risen sharply over the last month. Similarly to last year, RSV appears to be reaching its peak earlier in the fall than health officials typically expect.

    WastewaterSCAN’s data show RSV and flu spread ticking up, particularly in the South. This project’s data align with the CDC’s reports of influenza-like illness, which suggest southern states, Washington D.C., and Alaska now have moderate to high levels of people with flu-like symptoms, compared to low levels in the rest of the country.

    While health experts are expecting a lot of respiratory virus spread this winter, these trends aren’t inevitable. All individual and collective measures towards public health—getting vaccinated, wearing masks, testing, prioritizing ventilation—help mitigate these diseases.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, October 29

    National numbers, October 29

    Biobot Analytics resumed weekly updates to its COVID-19 wastewater dashboard this week.

    During the most recent week of data available (October 15-21), the U.S. reported about 16,200 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,300 new admissions each day
    • 4.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 0% fewer new admissions than the prior week (October 8-14)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 8.7% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 1% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of October 25, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron HV.1, 22% by EG.5, 17% by XBB.1.6, 12% by FL.1.5.1 (as of October 28)

    Our mid-fall COVID-19 lull continues in the U.S., with major metrics showing plateaus in disease spread nationally. A disruption in wastewater surveillance may make it harder to follow these trends in the coming weeks.

    Biobot Analytics has resumed weekly updates to its COVID-19 dashboard as of this Friday. While the company is no longer testing about 400 sites in the CDC’s surveillance network due to a contract switch, its independent network still represents more than 100 counties across the U.S., according to Biobot’s Twitter.

    Meanwhile, Biobot has filed a formal protest about the CDC contract change. According to reporting by POLITICO, the new contractor, Verily, cannot start testing at those 400 wastewater treatment sites while the Government Accountability Office (GAO) evaluates Biobot’s appeal. The protest will extend the data gap that I described in my previous posts about this contract, possibly delaying surveillance for months as we head into the winter respiratory virus season.

    With these gaps in mind, here’s what the limited wastewater surveillance data tell us. Biobot’s national dashboard shows declines in coronavirus spread from mid-September through mid-October, followed by a very slight (1%) increase in the week ending October 25. Regionally, spread is down in the Northeast and West Coast and up slightly in the South and Midwest.

    WastewaterSCAN’s latest update shows similar trends: a decline nationally in the last month, and recent upticks in the Midwest, South, and possibly West as well. There’s not a clear pattern as to which states are seeing more increases right now; it’s more of a slight uptick across the board, as the WWSCAN team describes the trend.

    Test positivity and hospitalization data from the CDC also suggest lulls. New hospitalizations for COVID-19 have not changed significantly in the last couple of weeks, staying at about 2,300 per day. The variant picture is still dominated by versions of XBB; more on this below.

    As we get further into respiratory virus season, COVID-19 is likely to join forces with other common pathogens to put pressure on the healthcare system, just like we saw last year. But the tools needed to control those viruses’ spread are less available than ever, with masks, tests, vaccines, and surveillance data all harder to find.

    So far, just 12 million people have received this year’s COVID-19 vaccines, per CDC estimates. POLITICO reports that CDC Director Dr. Mandy Cohen considers this number “on track” for the year, suggesting the agency is unlikely to put more resources into making the shots accessible.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, October 22

    National numbers, October 22

    Test positivity has dipped below 10% for the first time since July, per CDC data.

    During the most recent week of data available (October 8-14), the U.S. reported about 16,200 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,300 new admissions each day
    • 4.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new admissions than the prior week (October 1-7)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 9.5% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 14% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of October 11, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 24% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 20% by XBB.1.6, 20% by HV.1, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of October 14)

    Major metrics suggest the U.S. is still in a lull of COVID-19 spread, as we’ve seen decreases in wastewater levels and test positivity for several weeks. Transmission is still high, though, and it seems likely that cold weather will drive up COVID-19 as well as other respiratory viruses in the coming weeks. 

    Biobot updated its COVID-19 wastewater dashboard this week, showing a continued decline in national coronavirus levels (with a decrease of about 35% from early September through October 11). Regionally, the company reports an increase in transmission in the Midwest and decreases in other regions, though the Northeast still has the highest coronavirus levels.

    WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard similarly shows a national decline in recent weeks, and higher coronavirus levels in the Northeast and Midwest compared to the West and South. Some Northeast and Midwest sewersheds in SCAN’s network, including those in Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Michigan, have reported significant recent increases.

    As we discuss wastewater data, it’s worth a reminder that the CDC’s new contract with Verily has disrupted the existing surveillance landscape. Verily is working on onboarding CDC contract sites, leading to data gaps on the CDC dashboard, while Biobot’s network of sites for its national visualizations has become less comprehensive.

    COVID-19 test positivity, reported by the CDC’s respiratory virus testing network, is under 10% nationally for the first time since July. Northeast and Midwest regions report higher test positivity than the West and South. Hospital admissions for COVID-19 have plateaued as well.

    Influenza-like activity is mostly low across the U.S., according to the CDC’s FluView network. Only Alaska and the Northern Mariana Islands report high levels as of the week ending October 14.

    COVID-19 spread so far this fall is in line with the transmission levels we saw in fall 2021, during that year’s Delta surge, and a bit below last year’s levels, per Biobot. If we continue following these trends, we will be due for increased spread in November through the end of 2023.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, October 15

    National numbers, October 15

    Coronavirus levels are high in the Northeast and medium in other regions, according to WastewaterSCAN.

    During the most recent week of data available (October 1-7), the U.S. reported about 16,800 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,400 new admissions each day
    • 5.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new admissions than the prior week (September 24-30)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 10.1% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • 24% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 20% by XBB.1.6, 20% by HV.1, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of October 14)

    COVID-19 data signals point to a continued lull in transmission across the U.S., ahead of likely increases as the weather gets colder. The Northeast is still reporting higher COVID-19 levels than other regions, according to wastewater and test positivity data.

    National wastewater surveillance patterns suggest that coronavirus spread is trending slightly downward, according to WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard. Viral levels are high in the Northeast and medium in the other major regions, per WastewaterSCAN’s metrics, with sites in Massachusetts, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine reporting upticks.

    Wastewater data from Boston and New York City similarly show recent coronavirus increases. As I noted last week, these Northeast cities are frequently the first sites of late fall/winter surges, as colder temperatures contribute to more indoor gatherings.

    Biobot Analytics, typically one of my main sources of wastewater data, hasn’t updated its COVID-19 dashboard since October 2. The company is currently “making some improvements to [its] data infrastructure,” leading to less frequent updates at this time, a representative from Biobot wrote on Twitter last week. Data updates are planned on October 20 and November 3.

    Biobot’s data infrastructure updates might be related to the CDC contract change (which I covered last week), though the Twitter post didn’t mention this specifically. The CDC’s wastewater dashboard, while missing updates from a couple hundred sites as they switch contractors, also shows higher COVID-19 spread in the Northeast.

    The CDC’s test positivity data similarly report a continued lull at the national level: about 10% of tests in the agency’s lab testing network reported positive results in the week ending October 7, compared to a high of 15% in late August. Test positivity, like wastewater data, suggests higher spread in New England states and New York/New Jersey, as well as in some Midwest states, compared to other regions.

    Variant surveillance by the CDC suggests that most cases in the U.S. are still caused by a variety of XBB.1.5 relatives: EG.5, HV.1, XBB.1.6, etc. This is a good time to get one of the updated COVID-19 vaccines, which are designed to target XBB.1.5, if you haven’t already. BA.2.86, a variant of interest that emerged a few weeks ago, hasn’t shown up in major numbers yet, but is beginning to appear in the CDC’s data and may drive more spread later in the fall.

    Flu season has officially started, as of this week. Influenza-like illness (i.e. numbers of patients who go to their doctors’ offices with respiratory symptoms) is currently at lower levels than it was at this time last year, but is starting to “creep up,” Dr. Katelyn Jetelina wrote in a recent newsletter. Last year’s respiratory virus season “hit early and hard,” she said; we’ll see what happens this year.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, October 8

    National numbers, October 8

    Data from WastewaterSCAN’s network of testing sites suggest a recent increase in coronavirus in Northeast states’ wastewater.

    During the most recent week of data available (September 24-30), the U.S. reported about 18,100 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,600 new admissions each day
    • 5.5 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% fewer new admissions than the prior week (September 17-23)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 10.9% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 1% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of September 27, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 29% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 23% by XBB.1.6, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 30)

    After a couple of weeks’ decline, COVID-19 spread in the U.S. may be leveling off ahead of more increases in late fall and winter. We’re seeing plateaus in wastewater data, paired with slight declines in test positivity and hospital indicators.

    Biobot’s COVID-19 wastewater dashboard suggests that national COVID-19 spread reached a plateau last week, increasing very slightly from September 20 to September 27. The company’s regional data suggest that this plateau is consistent in all four regions, but the Northeast has significantly higher (and potentially rising) viral levels. It’s worth noting Biobot’s data may have become less comprehensive recently; see below for more details.

    The WastewaterSCAN project similarly shows that COVID-19 spread hasn’t changed much at the national level in recent weeks: it is high with no significant trend up or down, according to the project’s assessment. Per WastewaterSCAN, the Northeast and Midwest continue to have more coronavirus transmission than the West and South.

    Some Northeast cities are reporting significant upticks in the last week, including South Boston, Portland, Maine, and Montpelier, Vermont (the latter two report to WastewaterSCAN). In past years, late fall/winter surges have started in the Northeast and Midwest, as these regions see colder weather earlier, sometimes paired with the introduction of new variants. It seems likely that a similar trend will occur this year.

    In non-wastewater indicators: test positivity from the CDC’s laboratory network continues to trend slightly down, reported at 10.9% for the week ending September 30. Hospitalizations have also dipped slightly, though more than 2,500 people have still been hospitalized daily with COVID-19 in recent weeks.

    I wish I could update you about the fall vaccine rollout, but we literally don’t have national data on it, thanks to the end of CDC vaccination reporting requirements tied to the federal public health emergency. The CDC’s last vaccination data update occurred on May 11.

    Respiratory virus season is about to start, meaning that other common viruses (flu, RSV, etc.) will join COVID-19 in causing easily preventable illnesses. Remember that masks, ventilation, and shifting activities outdoors help reduce risks of all these viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, October 1

    National numbers, October 1

    Test positivity for COVID-19 is declining while hospitalizations are starting to plateau, according to the CDC’s data.

    During the most recent week of data available (September 17-23), the U.S. reported about 19,100 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,700 new admissions each day
    • 5.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 3% fewer new admissions than the prior week (September 10-16)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 11.6% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 13% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of September 20, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 29% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 23% by XBB.1.6, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 30)

    COVID-19 spread is on the decline nationally, following a trend from the last couple of weeks. But levels are still very high, and it’s unclear how long this decline will continue before colder weather and indoor gatherings push transmission up again.

    Wastewater surveillance (from Biobot, WastewaterSCAN, and the CDC’s network) reports national COVID-19 declines for the last two to three weeks. Patterns differ at the regional level, though, likely due to different behavioral patterns and variants.

    Biobot Analytics’ dashboard shows that national coronavirus levels in wastewater have dropped by about 20% from August 30 to September 20. While all four regions report declines, the Northeast is experiencing more of a plateau compared to starker drops in the South, West, and Midwest.

    Biobot announced this week that they will be updating COVID-19 data weekly on Mondays, a change from their prior biweekly reports on Tuesdays and Thursdays. This shift will lead to a greater delay in Biobot’s data; the most recent data on their dashboard are now as of September 20, over a week ago. But, as a tradeoff, the data may now be more accurate in incorporating samples from Biobot’s entire network, reducing retrospective updates.

    WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard shows a similar picture to Biobot’s: a slow decline in SARS-CoV-2 levels nationally, with more coronavirus spreading in the Northeast and Midwest than West and South. The WastewaterSCAN team recently updated their dashboard to more easily show national and regional trends—I’m a fan of the change.

    Aligning with wastewater data, test positivity from the CDC’s lab testing network has declined by about 20% in the last month. This metric also differs by region; test positivity is higher in Health Region 2 (including New York and New Jersey) as well as 5 and 7 (including some Midwestern states) than in other parts of the country.

    Hospitalizations (a more delayed indicator) are starting to plateau, according to the CDC. But it’s important to recognize that our limited wastewater and testing data suggest, while COVID-19 levels may be declining, they are still quite high compared to past lulls in transmission. Biobot’s data, for example, suggest that current spread is comparable to this time in early fall 2021, during the Delta wave.

    There hasn’t been much change in the variant picture during recent weeks: XBB.1.5-related variants EG.5 and XBB.1.6 caused the majority of cases in September, according to the CDC’s latest estimates. (EG.5 is an offshoot of XBB.1.9.) BA.2.86 has yet to show up in significant numbers, suggesting it might not be as competitive as some experts initially expected; though it could still accumulate and cause problems later this fall.

    The CDC is now updating its COVID-19 data weekly on Fridays, timed with its updates to other respiratory virus data pages. This suggests—as I noted last week—that the agency is now incorporating COVID-19 into its regular fall/winter virus surveillance systems.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, September 24

    National numbers, September 24

    Data from the WastewaterSCAN network suggests that COVID-19 spread has leveled off somewhat after this summer’s increase.

    During the most recent week of data available (September 3-9), the U.S. reported about 20,500 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,900 new admissions each day
    • 6.3 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% more new admissions than the prior week (August 27-September 2)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 12.5% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 5% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of September 13, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 24% by XBB.1.6, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 16)

    The COVID-19 plateau that I’ve described over the last couple of weeks continues, with wastewater and test positivity data showing that viral spread has slowed in much of the U.S. However, this is likely just a lull before respiratory virus season starts in earnest.

    National wastewater data from the WastewaterSCAN project suggest that COVID-19 spread has leveled off in recent weeks, after rising throughout July and August. Biobot Analytics’ data present a similar picture, though the company didn’t update its data this past Thursday (so the most recent numbers are as of September 13).

    SCAN and Biobot’s data both show plateaus or declines in all four major regions. But the Northeast and Midwest are reporting more coronavirus in their wastewater sites (at least, in aggregate) than the South and West Coast.

    Some sewersheds in the Northeast and Midwest regions have reported increases in recent weeks, while others are leveling off. In Boston and New York City, for example, most sewersheds report declines or plateaus; while sewersheds in Kansas City and Lawrence, Kansas report upward trends.

    To find wastewater data for your region, check the Biobot, WastewaterSCAN, and CDC dashboards. I maintain a list of national, state, and a few local wastewater surveillance dashboards on the COVID-19 Data Dispatch website.

    National COVID-19 test positivity is also trending slightly down, according to the CDC’s surveillance network. Test positivity fell slightly to 12.5% in the week ending September 16, from over 14% in the prior three weeks. Walgreens’ testing data show a continued decline in positivity as well.

    Hospital admissions for COVID-19 are still going up, according to the CDC—though these data are reported with a significant delay. More than 20,000 people were hospitalized with COVID-19 during the week ending September 9, demonstrating that this disease can still cause severe symptoms. And the CDC has no surveillance data on Long COVID, making that similarly-harmful outcome less visible.

    It’s now officially fall, and October marks the start of the respiratory virus season—meaning we can expect more spread of the flu, RSV, and other pathogens along with COVID-19. This is a good time to stock up on high-quality masks, air filters, and other tools that help protect against multiple diseases.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, September 17

    National numbers, September 17

    Wastewater data from Biobot suggest that coronavirus levels in the U.S. right now are similar to this time in 2021, during the Delta surge.

    During the most recent week of data available (August 27-September 2), the U.S. reported about 18,900 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,700 new admissions each day
    • 5.7 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 9% more new admissions than the prior week (August 20-26)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 14.4% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 10% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of September 6, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 25% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 24% by XBB.1.6, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 16)

    For the second week in a row, available data suggest that the current COVID-19 surge may be turning around, or at least heading for a plateau. But there’s still a lot of coronavirus going around—and this will likely remain true through the winter respiratory virus season.

    Wastewater data from both Biobot Analytics and WastewaterSCAN suggest that coronavirus spread may be ticking down, after two months of increases. Biobot’s national trends show a 10% decline in SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater last week, after a 1% decline the week prior. WastewaterSCAN’s trends show a slow decline in the last week, following a slow increase over the summer.

    This decline isn’t universal across the country: according to Biobot’s regional data, the South and Northeast are reporting clearer declines in coronavirus spread, while the West is in a plateau and the Midwest is in an increase. Sewersheds in Midwestern cities like South Bend, Indiana, Coralville, Iowa, and Lincoln, Nebraska have reported major increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels in the last couple of weeks, per WastewaterSCAN.

    Test positivity data from the CDC’s respiratory virus testing network also suggest that this summer’s COVID-19 surge may be leveling off. About 14.3% of COVID-19 tests in this CDC network came back positive in the week ending September 9, compared to 14.4% and 14.6% in the prior two weeks. (Note: this network includes a sample of testing labs across the country, but is less comprehensive than our testing data were before the federal health emergency’s end.)

    Walgreens’ COVID-19 dashboard, which reports test positivity data from the pharmacy chain, shows the positivity rate leveling off as well. The share of Walgreens tests coming back positive went down slightly from 45% in late August to 40% this past week. Walgreens’ dashboard, like the wastewater data, shows that more people are testing positive in the Midwest and West regions.

    Hospitalizations for COVID-19 continue to trend up, with the CDC reporting about 2,700 new patients a day during the week ending September 2. While this number may seem small compared to the overwhelmed hospitals we saw in past surges, it’s important to remember that CDC hospitalization data are both delayed and incomplete.

    Our most recent data are from two weeks ago, and reporting standards for hospitals are more lenient now than they have been earlier in the pandemic—though the CDC does still collect data directly from facilities across the country.

    Variant estimates, also from the CDC, suggest that EG.5 and XBB.1.6 are still the dominant lineages in the U.S. Each accounted for about one in four COVID-19 cases in the last two weeks, while other versions of XBB caused the rest. BA.2.86 hasn’t appeared in the CDC’s prevalence estimates yet, but scientists have detected it in several states, suggesting it could be spreading under the radar.

    Biobot’s wastewater data suggest that COVID-19 spread in the U.S. is similar now to this time in 2021, during the Delta surge. If 2023 continues to follow trends from the last two years, we could see transmission plateau in early fall, then rise again during the holiday season.  Any lull that we do experience may be a good time to stock up on masks, rapid tests, and other tools to protect yourself and your community.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, September 10

    National numbers, September 10

    COVID-19 test positivity and viral levels in wastewater may be turning around, but hospitalizations are still going up. Chart from the CDC, data as of September 7.

    During the most recent week of data available (August 20-26), the U.S. reported about 17,400 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,500 new admissions each day
    • 5.3 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 16% more new admissions than the prior week (August 13-19)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 13.5% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 0.3% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than last week (as of September 6, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 23% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.6; 22% by EG.5; 15% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 2)

    After two months of consistent increases in major COVID-19 metrics, we have once again reached, “Has the surge peaked?” territory. Preliminary data from wastewater and testing are suggesting potential plateaus, while more people are still getting hospitalized with COVID-19.

    National trends from Biobot Analytics’ wastewater surveillance network show very similar coronavirus levels in sewage this week and last week: 641 virus copies per milliliter of sewage on September 6, compared to 639 on August 30. These data are preliminary, though, and could change as more sewersheds report.

    Biobot’s regional data suggest different trends in different parts of the country: the South and West coast might be turning around, the Northeast is still reporting an increase (but the speed of increase there is slowing), and the Midwest is reporting a sharp increase following a recent decrease.

    Data from the CDC network and WastewaterSCAN similarly show mixed results depending on your location. Among CDC sites with recent data, about half reported increased coronavirus in their wastewater in the last two weeks, while the other half reported decreases. WastewaterSCAN’s network reports continued increases in Midwestern states, including sewersheds in Michigan, Ohio, and Kansas.

    Test positivity data from the CDC’s respiratory surveillance network also indicate that the summer surge might have peaked, or at least might be slowing. For the first time in several weeks, test positivity decreased slightly in the most recent CDC update, from 14.1% in the week ending August 26 to 13.5% in the week ending September 2.

    Walgreens’ COVID-19 positivity tracker (which shares data from tests conducted by the pharmacy network) reported a slight decrease as well, from 43.6% in the week ending August 26 to 40.6% in the week ending September 2. Like the wastewater surveillance data, this information is preliminary but could be a good sign.

    Meanwhile, COVID-19 hospitalizations—a more delayed metric—are still increasing. About 2,500 people were newly hospitalized with COVID-19 each day in the week ending August 26. Hospitalizations have particularly gone up for older adults, according to data from insurance company Humana shared with STAT News.

    Many students went back to school last week, as the fall semester gets underway. This could be another driver of COVID-19 spread, as travel and gatherings were in the summer. Better air quality, masks, and other measures could make schools safer for students, teachers, staff, and their families.

    more national numbers