COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: BA.5

  • National numbers, November 13

    National numbers, November 13

    COVID-19 hospitalizations have risen slightly in recent weeks, indicating the start of a fall/winter surge, according to CDC data.

    In the past week (November 3 through 9), the U.S. reported about 290,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 41,000 new cases each day
    • 88 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% more new cases than last week (October 27-November 2)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 24,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,500 new admissions each day
    • 7.4 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,300 new COVID-19 deaths (340 per day)
    • 44% of new cases are caused by Omicron BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 8% by BF.7;  2% by BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2 (as of November 12)
    • An average of 400,000 vaccinations per day

    We are beginning to see the impacts of colder weather and new variants this week, as both official COVID-19 cases and new hospital admissions went up slightly: increasing by 6% and 5% from the prior week, respectively.

    Wastewater monitoring similarly shows an uptick in coronavirus transmission at the national level, according to Biobot’s dashboard. The Northeast still has the highest virus concentration, but other regions of the country are catching up—particularly the West coast, which reported a significant increase in the last two weeks.

    About half of the wastewater surveillance sites included on the CDC’s national dashboard reported increases in coronavirus transmission over the two-week period ending November 7, with 30% of sites reporting increases of at least 100%.

    Omicron BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are likely a major source of increased virus spread. These two strains—subvariants of BA.5 that are even more contagious—now account for 44% of new cases in the week ending November 12, according to CDC estimates. New variants tend to have an impact on transmission when they reach about 50% prevalence, so we will likely see more BQ-driven spread in the weeks to come.

    The New York/New Jersey region continues to report the highest amounts of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1: these variants represented about 60% of new cases in the last week. These two states also reported some of the highest (official) case rates in the country last week, along with Puerto Rico, New Mexico, and North Dakota, per the latest Community Profile Report. Cases and hospitalizations in New York City, often a bellwether for the rest of the country, are rising again.

    At the same time, the U.S. is seeing an early and intense flu season. Most of the country’s Southeast region (from Virginia to Mississippi) reported the highest possible levels of influenza-like activity in the week ending November 5, according to the CDC. Flu, COVID-19, and RSV are all straining hospitals as we head into the holiday season.

    The new, Omicron-specific booster shots provide enhanced protection against the latest variants, but uptake remains very low—as shown by new CDC data providing vaccinations by state. Only 10% of the eligible population has received one of the new shots, as of November 9.

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  • National numbers, November 6

    National numbers, November 6

    Despite significant undercounting of COVID-19 cases, the CDC’s Community Transmission Levels (based on case rates and test positivity) are high enough to suggest the majority of the country should be masking. Data here are as of November 2.

    In the past week (October 27 through November 2), the U.S. reported about 270,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 39,000 new cases each day
    • 83 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% more new cases than last week (October 20-26)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 23,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,300 new admissions each day
    • 7.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,500 new COVID-19 deaths (360 per day)
    • 35% of new cases are caused by Omicron BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 9% by BF.7;  4% by BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2 (as of November 5)
    • An average of 400,000 vaccinations per day

    Continuing a trend from the last few weeks, nationwide COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations are still at plateaus or trending very slightly downward. We aren’t clearly in a fall surge yet, but concerning newer Omicron subvariants are rising—along with other respiratory diseases.

    National wastewater trends are also still suggesting plateaus or downturns in coronavirus transmission, according to Biobot’s dashboard. The Northeast’s wastewater saw a major drop in coronavirus concentration over the last couple of weeks while other regions are at high, but steady levels.

    As always, it’s important to remember that official case data are significantly undercounted. True infections are likely around 20 times higher than reported cases, though even that factor is difficult to estimate at this point in the pandemic.

    Despite the undercounting, the CDC’s Community Transmission Levels (based on case rates and test positivity) suggest that 75% of U.S. counties are experiencing “high” or “substantial” coronavirus spread. If we had more accurate data, that number would likely shoot up to 100%. In other words, even today’s seemingly-low and underestimated case numbers are still high compared to earlier periods of the pandemic.

    Newer versions of the Omicron variant will likely drive continued COVID-19 spread this fall. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 have emerged as the most competitive subvariants and are quickly taking over from their parent lineage, BA.5. These two subvariants caused about 35% of new cases in the U.S. in the week ending November 5, according to the CDC’s estimates, while BA.5 caused 39%.

    The BQs are most prevalent in the Northeast, especially New York and New Jersey: these subvariants caused over 50% of new cases in the NY/NJ region last week, according to the CDC. These two states and Connecticut also had the highest per-capita COVID-19 hospitalization rate last week, per the HHS Community Profile Report.

    As hospitals around the country brace for a winter COVID-19 surge, they’re already dealing with high transmission of the flu. Flu hospitalizations have not been as high as they are this season since 2010-2011, the CDC reports. Last week, Washington D.C., Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama reported influenza-like illness rates so high that the CDC needed a new map color to express it.

    Even if COVID-19 isn’t (yet) surging in your community, this is a good time to stock up on high-quality masks and rapid tests, and plan holiday gatherings that will keep friends and family members safe. Your Local Epidemiologist has a helpful guide for the latter.

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  • National numbers, October 30

    National numbers, October 30

    BA.5 caused just under half of new COVID-19 cases nationwide in the last week, according to CDC estimates. But we have yet to see a new subvariant clearly take over.

    In the past week (October 20 through 26), the U.S. reported about 270,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 38,000 new cases each day
    • 81 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 2% more new cases than last week (October 13-19)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 23,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,200 new admissions each day
    • 6.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,600 new COVID-19 deaths (380 per day)
    • 27% of new cases are caused by Omicron BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 8% by BF.7;  3% by BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2 (as of October 29)
    • An average of 400,000 vaccinations per day

    The national COVID-19 picture continues to be somewhat murky, thanks in part to poor-quality data. Both nationwide cases and new hospital admissions trended slightly upward in the last week (by 2% and 1%, respectively); this could reflect the beginnings of fall surges in some places, but it’s hard to say for sure.

    Wastewater data from Biobot continue to suggest the Northeast is seeing more COVID-19 transmission than other parts of the country, though this region reported a decrease in viral levels over the last two weeks. Other regions are reporting plateaus in transmission, according to Biobot.

    One reason we’re not seeing a definitive national surge yet could be that the newest iterations of Omicron have yet to fully dominate the country. BA.5 caused just under half of new COVID-19 cases nationwide last week, according to the CDC’s latest estimates, but the remaining half of cases were driven by a variety of new lineages: BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BA.4.6, and BF.7 all contributed over 5%.

    When one of these subvariants (likely BQ.1.1) outcompetes the others, we will likely see a clearer picture of its impact on transmission. Also worth noting: XBB, the subvariant spreading quickly in Singapore and other Asian countries, has been identified in the U.S.—though its prevalence is too minimal to show up in the CDC’s estimates, at this point.

    New York is a hotspot again: the state has a higher prevalence of BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 than other parts of the country, and some experts are concerned about rising COVID-19 hospitalizations here. In New York City, official cases have remained relatively stable for the last few weeks even as hospitalizations are going up, suggesting how continued low testing may make cases even less useful as a metric to watch.

    This isn’t the only region seeing the start of a fall surge, though. The Twin Cities area in Minnesota reported a major spike in wastewater this week, with viral prevalence the highest it’s been since the original Omicron surge. Some counties in the South and West coast are showing similar warnings, according to Biobot’s dashboard.

    And COVID-19 isn’t the only respiratory virus wreaking havoc right now, as we’ll discuss more in this issue. Places like NYC are seeing rising hospitalizations from the flu and RSV, placing additional strain on an already-overburdened healthcare system. Even if the coronavirus doesn’t have a drastic surge this winter, we could still see a lot of respiratory infections.

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  • The Omicron subvariants start coming and they don’t stop coming

    The Omicron subvariants start coming and they don’t stop coming

    A veritable alphabet soup of subvariants. Chart from the CDC, data as of October 15.

    When the CDC updated its variant prevalence estimates this week, the agency added new versions of Omicron to the dashboard. In the U.S., COVID-19 cases are now driven by: BA.5, BA.4.6, BQ.1, BQ.1.1, BF.7, BA.2.75, and BA.2.75.2. And possibly more subvariants that we aren’t tracking yet.

    As evolutionary biology expert T. Ryan Gregory pointed out on Twitter recently, Omicron’s evolution is “off the chart.” 

    Or, to parody Smash Mouth: the Omicron variants start coming and they don’t stop coming and they don’t stop coming and they don’t stop coming…

    Let’s go over the veritable alphabet soup of variants we’re dealing with right now, as well as one newer variant identified in east Asia that experts are closely watching.

    BA.5, BA.4, BA.4.6

    BA.5 is currently the dominant Omicron lineage in the U.S., causing about two-thirds of new COVID-19 cases in the week ending October 15. Along with BA.4, BA.5 split off from the original Omicron lineage and was first identified by South African scientists over the summer.

    As these two subvariants spread around the world, it quickly became clear that they could spread faster than other versions of Omicron and reinfect people who’d previously gotten sick with those prior lineages. For more details, see this post from June. BA.5 later pulled out from BA.4 as the most competitive lineage.

    BA.4.6 evolved out of BA.4. It appears to have a small advantage over BA.5, but can’t really compete with the newer subvariants we’re seeing now; according to the CDC’s estimates, it’s been causing around 10% to 12% of new cases nationwide for the last few weeks (without much growth).

    BQ.1 and BQ.1.1

    BQ.1 and its descendant BQ.1.1 are the two newest subvariants to show up in the CDC’s prevalence estimates, both causing about 5.7% of new cases nationwide in the last week. They actually evolved out of BA.5: BQ.1 is shorthand for a much longer, more unwieldy variant name that nobody wants to type out on Twitter.

    In the U.S., BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 are starting to outcompete their parent lineage, BA.5. They’ve grown from causing less than 1% of new cases to over 10% of new cases in the last month. These subvariants are also now outcompeting other strains in the U.K. and other European countries.

    As CBS News’s Alexander Tin explains, health experts are concerned that COVID-19 treatments like monoclonal antibodies might work less well against BQ.1 and BQ.1.1. We don’t have clear data on this yet, but pharmaceutical companies will test out the newer variants in the weeks to come. The Omicron bivalent boosters, at least, are expected to continue working against this lineage.

    BF.7

    BF.7 is another offshoot of BA.5 (again, this is shorthand for a longer name). I dedicated a post to it in late September, and the subvariant’s position hasn’t changed significantly since then: it seems to be a bit more transmissible than BA.5, but not so much that it is quickly outcompeting the parent lineage. BF.7 caused about 5% of new cases nationwide in the last week.

    Similarly to BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, there are some concerns that COVID-19 treatments will be less effective against BF.7 than other versions of Omicron based on the subvariant’s spike protein mutations, but we do not have clinical data at this point.

    BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2

    BA.2.75, as you might guess from the notation, evolved out of BA.2—the same original Omicron lineage that produced BA.2.12.1 and drove surges in places like New York City over the summer. It has also remained present at fairly low levels across the U.S. recently, causing just 1.3% of new cases in the last week, according to the CDC’s estimates.

    But BA.2.75 now has its own offshoot, called BA.2.75.2, that appears to be a bit more competitive. The CDC recently started splitting BA.2.75.2 out of its parent lineage in its prevalence estimates, showing that it’s growing a bit faster (from 0.4% to 1.4% in the last month). Of course, this growth rate pales in comparison to what we’re seeing from the BA.5 sublineages described above.

    XBB

    XBB is the latest international subvariant of concern, identified this week in several east Asian countries. It has spread particularly quickly in Singapore, as described in this article by David Axe at the Daily Beast.

    Like BA.2.75, XBB descended from Omicron BA.2—though it’s gone through more rounds of spike protein mutation; this is why experts are calling it XBB, rather than a long string attached to BA.2. Data so far indicate its growth advantage over BA.5 is similar to what we’re seeing from BQ.1.1. XBB has also raised concerns about treatment and vaccine efficacy, since the bivalent boosters were developed from BA.4 and BA.5. 

    The CDC and other health agencies have yet to identify XBB in the U.S.; experts are closely watching how this new subvariant might be able to compete with our current variations on BA.5.

    Overall takeaways

    Overall, both in the U.S. and around the world, we’re seeing a lot of competition between these subvariants. All of them have small growth advantages over BA.5—which is currently dominant in the U.S.—but none are so different that they’re completely pulling ahead.

    As I wrote last weekend, many experts are anticipating a surge this fall and winter, driven by both new subvariants and less-cautious beavior. We likely won’t see a huge spike at the level of last winter’s massive Omicron surge, but this season will still have plenty of infections (and reinfections).

    We will need more data on how all these newer variants respond to vaccines and treatments, especially the antiviral Paxlovid. But it’s at least promising that many of the circulating variants right now evolved from BA.5, against which our bivalent boosters were specifically designed. It’s a great time to get that booster!

    More variant data

  • National numbers, October 16

    National numbers, October 16

    After a small uptick in vaccinations thanks to the new boosters, vaccinations are already slowing again. Chart via the CDC, data as of October 12.

    In the past week (October 8 through 14), the U.S. reported about 270,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 39,000 new cases each day
    • 83 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 12% fewer new cases than last week (October 1-7)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 23,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,300 new admissions each day
    • 7.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 4% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,300 new COVID-19 deaths (330 per day)
    • 12% of new cases are caused by Omicron BA.4.6; 11% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 5% by BF.7;  3% by BA.2.75 and BA.2.75.2 (as of October 15)
    • An average of 400,000 vaccinations per day

    While official case numbers remain low compared to past fall seasons—both national cases and hospital admissions dropped again this week—signals of a coming fall surge are accumulating from wastewater and local data.

    According to Biobot’s dashboard, the coronavirus continues to spread in the Northeast at higher levels than the rest of the country with a new uptick this week. In places like Franklin County, Massachusetts, Fairfield County, Connecticut, and Middlesex County, New Jersey, coronavirus levels are higher now than they have been at any point in the last six months.

    Similar patterns are starting to show up in clinical data: Northeast states including Vermont, Maine, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, New York, and New Jersey reported increased COVID-19 patients this past week, according to the October 13 Community Profile Report.

    Along with colder weather and behavior patterns, new Omicron lineages could contribute to the increased transmission—if they aren’t contributing already. BQ.1 and BQ.1.1, two sublineages from BA.5, are now causing about 11% of new cases nationwide, according to the CDC’s most recent variant prevalence update. In the northeast, their prevalence is approaching to 20%. (More on the new subvariants in the next post.)

    As many of the sublineages now circulating are descended from BA.5 or BA.4, the bivalent booster shots designed to protect against these variants should still help protect against newer strains. In fact, the FDA and CDC recently expanded eligibility for these new shots to younger age groups, going down to kids ages five to eleven.

    But uptake of the new boosters remains low—in part because public communication has been so limited, many Americans don’t know they qualify for these shots. Only 15 million people have received the boosters as of October 12, a tiny fraction of the eligible population.

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  • BF.7, yet another Omicron subvariant of concern

    BF.7, yet another Omicron subvariant of concern

    BF.7 (shown here in light green) is among the Omicron subvariants starting to push out BA.5. Chart via the CDC.

    Omicron BF.7, an offshoot of BA.5, is the latest subvariant to raise red flags among experts tracking COVID-19 in the U.S.

    This week, BF.7 passed BA.2.75, another worrying lineage, in the CDC’s prevalence estimates: the CDC found that it caused about 2.3% of new cases nationwide in the week ending September 24. It’s most prevalent in the Northeast right now: in New England, it caused almost 4% of new cases last week, the CDC estimates.

    BF.7 has an additional spike protein mutation compared to BA.5, CDC spokesperson Jasmine Reed told CBS News last week. The agency is concerned that this “genetic change” could lead to Evusheld, an antibody drug used by immunocompromised people, becoming less effective. It could also contribute to a new wave of reinfections, as we’ve seen with other Omicron subvariants in the last few months.

    Here’s a quote from Dr. Stuart Ray, a data expert at John Hopkins’ Department of Medicine, in a Fortune article about BF.7:

    “The same growth advantage in multiple countries makes it reasonable to think that BF.7 is gaining a foothold,” and that it’s potentially more transmissible than parent BA.5, Ray said. Children of variants “don’t grow relative to their parent unless they have an advantage.”

    We have relatively little data on BF.7 so far, but it’s worth monitoring closely in the coming weeks.

    More on variants

  • National numbers, September 18

    National numbers, September 18

    Wastewater trends in the past couple of weeks are looking a bit messy, with a potential new surge in the Northeast and plateaus in other regions. Chart via Biobot, retrieved on September 18.

    In the past week (September 10 through 16), the U.S. reported about 420,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 60,000 new cases each day
    • 128 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 16% fewer new cases than last week (September 3-9)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 31,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 4,400 new admissions each day
    • 9.3 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,500 new COVID-19 deaths (0.8 for every 100,000 people)
    • 85% of new cases are caused by Omicron BA.5; 10% by BA.4.6; 1% by BA.2.75 (as of September 17)
    • An average of 25,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Officially-reported COVID-19 cases are still on the decline nationwide this week, as are newly hospitalized patients (a more reliable metric). About 4,400 people with COVID-19 were admitted to hospitals across the country, compared to over 6,000 a day in late July.

    These declines may be short-lived, as reopened schools and increased indoor gatherings contribute to new outbreaks this fall. Last week, I warned that Biobot’s wastewater data showed a slight uptick in coronavirus levels across the country; this week’s update shows a continued increase in the Northeast while other regions are in plateaus.

    Will the Northeast be the first region to experience a new surge again? It seems feasible, based on data from both Biobot and the CDC—though this region also has better wastewater surveillance coverage than other parts of the country, ABC News reporter Arielle Mitropoulos points out. Boston, one long-running wastewater surveillance location, is reporting high coronavirus concentrations at a level not observed since earlier in the summer.

    Nationwide, BA.5 continues to be the dominant variant, causing about 85% of new cases in the week ending September 17 per CDC estimates. But it’s facing competition from newer Omicron subvariants, including BA.4.6 (10% of new cases this week), BA.2.75 (1.3% of cases), and BF.7 (1.7% of cases). As of this week, the CDC is now reporting BA.2.75 and BF.7 separately rather than combining them with other lineages.

    BA.2.75, also called Centaurus, is a subvariant from BA.2 that evolved some additional mutations. BF.7 actually evolved from BA.5; its longer name is BA.5.2.1.X. There hasn’t been much reporting yet on BF.7, but it appears to be present in the Northeast—particularly in New England—at higher levels than in other regions. (Possibly another driver of a new surge in this area.)

    Overall, while COVID-19 spread in the U.S. is occurring less right now than it did earlier in the summer, the risk of encountering this virus is still pretty high across the country. According to the CDC’s “Community Transmission Level” guidance (pre-February), more than 90% of U.S. counties should require masks indoors.

    Instead, we have no masking requirements, increasingly-limited testing, and a booster shot campaign that many Americans do not even know is happening. Between 300 and 400 Americans still die of COVID-19 every day—a number that should be unacceptable—and I fear this number will only go up as we head into winter.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, September 4

    National numbers, September 4

    Coronavirus trends in wastewater compared to official case numbers, since spring 2020. Screenshot from Biobot’s dashboard, retrieved September 4.

    In the past week (August 27 through September 2), the U.S. reported about 590,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 80,000 new cases each day
    • 179 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new cases than last week (August 20-26)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 36,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 5,100 new admissions each day
    • 10.8 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 4% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,800 new COVID-19 deaths (0.9 for every 100,000 people)
    • 89% of new cases are caused by Omicron BA.5; 8% by BA.4.6 (as of September 3)
    • An average of 70,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Over the past month, COVID-19 trends in the U.S. have been fairly consistent: disease spread has declined slowly around the country. Official case counts dropped from about 120,000 a day in the first week of August, to about 80,000 a day last week.

    New hospital admissions, a more reliable metric these days, have also declined. A month ago, U.S. hospitals were admitting over 6,000 new COVID-19 patients a day; last week, that number was about 5,000. Wastewater data from Biobot and from the CDC suggest that this trend has been broadly consistent across different regions.

    But coronavirus transmission is not currently at low levels by any means. For example, look at Biobot’s national chart showing virus concentration in wastewater compared to officially-reported case numbers. From case numbers alone, you might think that COVID-19 is much less prevalent now than it was in late August or early September last year. But the wastewater data reveal that transmission now is actually pretty close to early-Delta surge levels. (It is, in fact, PCR testing that has declined.)

    Similarly, the CDC’s Community Transmission Levels (also known as the older metrics, based on cases and test positivity) show that about 90% of U.S. counties are currently facing high transmission and should require masks indoors. Even the current—and much more lenient—Community Levels suggest that more than half of the country is in a high- or medium-COVID-risk zone.

    The summer surge has waned so slowly thanks to the U.S.’s complete abandonment of measures to mitigate COVID-19’s spread, combined with the rise of newer Omicron subvariants. BA.5 continues to dominate here, causing almost 90% of new cases in the week ending September 3, though it’s facing competition from BA.4.6: a version of BA.4 that appears to have a slight advantage.

    Most experts agree that we will probably face another surge this fall and winter, as more people gather inside and travel for the holidays. The question is how severe that wave will be, which may be determined via a contest between updated vaccines (more on that later in the issue) and the coronavirus’ continued capacity for mutation.

    One potential sign of such a wave: wastewater surveillance in South Africa has picked up an increase in coronavirus concentration, Bloomberg reported yesterday. Also: your usual reminder to be wary of data trends in the days following the holiday weekend.

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  • National numbers, July 31

    National numbers, July 31

    New hospital admissions for COVID-19 are slowing nationwide, a potential sign of the subvariant surge peaking. Chart via the CDC, retrieved on July 31.

    In the past week (July 23 through 29), the U.S. reported about 880,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 130,000 new cases each day
    • 269 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% fewer new cases than last week (July 16-22)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 44,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 6,300 new admissions each day
    • 13.5 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 2% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,500 new COVID-19 deaths (0.8 for every 100,000 people)
    • 82% of new cases are caused by Omicron BA.5; 13% by BA.4 (as of July 23)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    The U.S.’s Omicron BA.5 wave appears to be creeping past its plateau, according to several major indicators. Nationwide, 1% fewer new cases were reported this week compared to last week, the second week in a row of clear deceleration in this metric (with no major holidays interrupting reports).

    New hospital admissions are also slowing down: the number of COVID-19 patients newly admitted to hospitals this week was only 2% higher than it was last week. It’s a smaller increase than any reported week-over-week in the last couple of months.

    And the plateau is showing up in wastewater, too: data from Biobot Analytics show that the coronavirus concentration in America’s sewers dipped slightly last week in all four regions of the country. About 55% of sewersheds in the CDC’s wastewater surveillance network reported coronavirus decreases or very slight increases in the last week, compared to 45% reporting more significant increases.

    To me, these metrics are suggesting that the Omicron subvariant wave may be, finally, running out of people to infect (or reinfect). But the decline is incredibly slow, likely because the U.S. has taken almost no measures to curb transmission.

    The CDC’s community transmission guidance (also known as the old guidance, pre-February 2022 switch to “Community Levels”) suggests that Americans in 98% of counties should be masking indoors right now. But almost no state or local public health departments have actually brought back mask requirements. Even Los Angeles County failed to institute its planned indoor mask mandate, due to public pushback at the measure and cases trending down.

    Meanwhile, testing indicators continue to suggest that reported case counts are a small fraction of the actual coronavirus infections happening across the country right now. The national PCR test positivity rate was 18% last week, according to the CDC; and almost every state reported a positivity rate over 10%, according to the July 28 Community Profile Report. (Experts consider test positivity over 10% to be evidence of high transmission and insufficient testing.)

    As fewer PCR tests are conducted, the companies that process these tests are laying off workers and cutting their capacity, according to the Wall Street Journal. Even some companies that make at-home rapid tests are taking these measures, though rapid test capacity is still much higher than PCR testing capacity right now.

    The safety measures that can prevent coronavirus transmission have not changed with BA.5. Individuals and small communities still have the ability to keep using masks, testing, gathering in outdoor spaces, etc., even as our institutions fail to keep us safe.

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  • National numbers, July 24

    National numbers, July 24

    Has the BA.5 surge reached a plateau? Data from wastewater and other sources seem to suggest, maybe. Chart via Biobot Analytics.

    In the past week (July 16 through 22), the U.S. reported about 880,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 130,000 new cases each day
    • 268 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% more new cases than last week (July 9-15)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 43,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 6,200 new admissions each day
    • 13.2 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,400 new COVID-19 deaths (0.7 for every 100,000 people)
    • 78% of new cases are caused by Omicron BA.5; 13% by BA.4 (as of July 16)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Reported COVID-19 cases and hospital admissions seem to suggest that maybe the BA.5 surge is slowing down, at the national level. (And it is, definitively, the BA.5 surge, with almost 80% of new cases caused by this subvariant in the week ending July 16). According to CDC data, new cases only increased by 1% this week, compared to the week prior; last week, they increased by 17%.

    New hospital admissions, similarly, increased by 5% this week, compared to 15% the week prior. And wastewater data from Biobot are showing a potential national plateau in the last week, with very slight increases or decreases in all four main regions of the country.

    The CDC’s wastewater monitoring also shows that “most of the country is reporting moderate to high SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater.” About half of the 800 sites in the CDC network reported a decrease in coronavirus levels in the last two weeks, while 43% reported an increase.

    These are all good signs. But I’m skeptical that we’re anywhere near the end of this current surge, for a few reasons. First, the continued underreporting of cases makes it difficult to evaluate case data, both nationally and in local settings. (For example, is NYC actually seeing a decline in transmission, or is the recent decline there a result of less PCR testing?) The CDC reported a national PCR test positivity of 17% last week, and it’s even higher in many states.

    Second, the declines we’re seeing in hospital admissions and coronavirus levels in wastewater—both more reliable indicators than cases—are very slight. These patterns suggest that, while we may be near the peak of the BA.5 surge, it could take several weeks for it to actually abate. And by the time that happens, another new variant (maybe BA.2.75, maybe something else entirely) could likely come in and bump transmission again.

    Finally, the U.S. as a whole is doing very little to manage this surge. I think this subheading from a recent POLITICO Pro article provides a good summary of the situation: “Strategies for managing 130,000 new daily Covid cases are largely the same as they were for managing 30,000 new daily cases four months ago.”

    There’s been a slight uptick in second booster shots for Americans over age 50, according to CDC data. And a few, isolated localities are considering new mask mandates. But by and large, most people are heading into potential reinfection from BA.5 with limited protection. Stay safe out there.

    more national numbers