COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Category: Uncategorized

  • Ending the COVID-19 Data Dispatch—but not my COVID-19 reporting

    Editor’s note, November 27: Check out my new publication: The Sick Times, a new nonprofit news site chronicling the Long Covid crisis.

    After more than three years, 165 weekly newsletters, and a lot of number-crunching, this is the last issue of the COVID-19 Data Dispatch. I am bidding farewell to this publication, with immense gratitude to everyone who has supported it. But this isn’t the last newsletter you’ll get from me about COVID-19 research and data; more on that below.

    I’m ending the COVID-19 Data Dispatch for three reasons. First, there is simply less day-to-day COVID-19 data news these days than there was early in the pandemic. When I started writing this publication in summer 2020, there was a constant stream of data issues to explain, new resources coming online, confusing trends, and more. The stream has slowed a lot in the last year, especially after the federal public health emergency ended in May.

    The COVID-19 pandemic certainly isn’t over, and COVID-19 is certainly still a significant health threat in the U.S. and all over the world. Millions of people continue to get this disease every week, of whom thousands go to the hospital, hundreds die, and many more are left with Long COVID. However, the specific focus area that I chose for this publication—data and surveillance—is no longer an active topic requiring dedicated coverage. Post-health emergency, U.S. data systems have settled into tracking COVID-19 with a similar lack of urgency to their tracking of other seasonal diseases, leaving me with less to write about on a weekly basis.

    Second, writing a publication solo is a lot of work, and I’ve felt myself inching closer to burnout in recent months. I’ve primarily written the CDD on weekends, in my spare time from freelance projects. When I started this newsletter, the process worked well because CDD topics often lent themselves to later freelance articles and vice versa. These days, there’s less overlap, as media publications are less interested in COVID-19 news. While I’ve appreciated having this space to keep covering the topic, it has taken more time and energy to figure out what I’m writing from week to week. The weekly newsletter has felt less like a “passion project,” and more like a chore, which is always a red flag for me.

    And the third reason is the most important: I’m getting ready to transition into a new publication. In the new publication, I will continue covering COVID-19—but with a new focus area. I’m also transitioning from a solo project to one with a team, which we hope will grow as the project receives donations and grant funding. I’m not sharing too many details here because this publication hasn’t been announced publicly yet, but you can expect to learn more about it soon.

    Specifically: if you’re a COVID-19 Data Dispatch newsletter subscriber, expect an email from me in the coming days introducing my new publication. You’ll be welcome to unsubscribe from my emails if you aren’t interested in the new project; though I hope you’ll find that it will serve to help you navigate the continued pandemic just as the CDD has.

    In the meantime, feel free to email me with any questions or concerns you have. And thank you for all the support over the last three years—for the comments, the questions, the donations, and the building of a small community that refuses to simply move on from the ongoing COVID-19 crisis. Thank you.

  • Sources and updates, November 5

    • New respiratory virus dashboard for Europe: Residents of about 50 European countries can now follow respiratory virus trends for their nations on a new dashboard developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC). The dashboard compiles data from patient visits to healthcare facilities, laboratory testing, and genetic sequencing of coronavirus variants, according to a press release by the ECDC. Viewers can find summary trends for influenza-like illness as well as specific trends for COVID-19, flu, and RSV. This dashboard is a great step forward for standardizing surveillance data across countries.
    • Medicaid unwinding update from KFF: This week, the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) published an update to its Medicaid Enrollment and Unwinding Tracker, which follows the Americans who lost their health insurance following the end of a Medicaid rule tied to the federal public health emergency for COVID-19. At least 10 million people have lost Medicaid coverage as of November 1, KFF reports, though the researchers acknowledge that this number is likely an undercount due to limited data. While disenrollment rates vary by state, overall, 71% of people who lost Medicaid coverage did so for “procedural reasons,” i.e. paperwork issues, according to KFF’s analysis.
    • New Long COVID prevalence estimates: In a new paper, published this week in PLOS ONE, researchers at Dartmouth and University College London estimate Long COVID prevalence in the U.S. based on six months of data from the U.S. Census and CDC’s Household Pulse Survey. (Longtime readers may remember that this survey is one of my personal favorite sources for Long COVID data.) About 14% of respondents surveyed between June and December 2022 reported that they had experienced Long COVID at some point, half of them during the time they were surveyed, the researchers found. Americans with less education and lower incomes were more likely to report Long COVID symptoms, and the condition was correlated with physical and mental difficulties such as trouble dressing and bathing.
    • Vaccine confidence falling in the U.S.: A new study from the Annenberg Public Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania finds that vaccine confidence is declining for a variety of diseases, not just COVID-19. The researchers compared results from similar surveys conducted in October 2023 and in April 2021, both of which included about 1,600 people selected for a nationally representative sample. Confidence rates in COVID-19 vaccines dropped from 75% to 63%, while confidence rates that all vaccines approved in the U.S. are generally safe fell from 77% to 71%. At the same time, the researchers found that more survey respondents believed incorrect statements, such as that ivermectin was an effective treatment for COVID-19.
    • Reasons for masking in Japan: One more study that caught my attention this week, on a more positive note: a researcher at Osaka University examined Japanese use of masks for COVID-19. Among participants in the researcher’s online surveys, the majority reported still wearing masks in June 2023, even though COVID-19 guidelines in Japan became less strict earlier this year. Social norms in Japan contribute to this behavior, the survey found, as respondents reported that they continued to mask both to avoid infection and to appear “normal” in public spaces. The study provides data behind well-known social norms in Japan, while offering some hope to those of us “lone maskers” in places where the norms are quite different.

  • National numbers, October 22

    National numbers, October 22

    Test positivity has dipped below 10% for the first time since July, per CDC data.

    During the most recent week of data available (October 8-14), the U.S. reported about 16,200 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,300 new admissions each day
    • 4.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new admissions than the prior week (October 1-7)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 9.5% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 14% lower concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of October 11, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 24% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 20% by XBB.1.6, 20% by HV.1, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of October 14)

    Major metrics suggest the U.S. is still in a lull of COVID-19 spread, as we’ve seen decreases in wastewater levels and test positivity for several weeks. Transmission is still high, though, and it seems likely that cold weather will drive up COVID-19 as well as other respiratory viruses in the coming weeks. 

    Biobot updated its COVID-19 wastewater dashboard this week, showing a continued decline in national coronavirus levels (with a decrease of about 35% from early September through October 11). Regionally, the company reports an increase in transmission in the Midwest and decreases in other regions, though the Northeast still has the highest coronavirus levels.

    WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard similarly shows a national decline in recent weeks, and higher coronavirus levels in the Northeast and Midwest compared to the West and South. Some Northeast and Midwest sewersheds in SCAN’s network, including those in Maine, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Michigan, have reported significant recent increases.

    As we discuss wastewater data, it’s worth a reminder that the CDC’s new contract with Verily has disrupted the existing surveillance landscape. Verily is working on onboarding CDC contract sites, leading to data gaps on the CDC dashboard, while Biobot’s network of sites for its national visualizations has become less comprehensive.

    COVID-19 test positivity, reported by the CDC’s respiratory virus testing network, is under 10% nationally for the first time since July. Northeast and Midwest regions report higher test positivity than the West and South. Hospital admissions for COVID-19 have plateaued as well.

    Influenza-like activity is mostly low across the U.S., according to the CDC’s FluView network. Only Alaska and the Northern Mariana Islands report high levels as of the week ending October 14.

    COVID-19 spread so far this fall is in line with the transmission levels we saw in fall 2021, during that year’s Delta surge, and a bit below last year’s levels, per Biobot. If we continue following these trends, we will be due for increased spread in November through the end of 2023.

    more national numbers
  • National numbers, October 8

    National numbers, October 8

    Data from WastewaterSCAN’s network of testing sites suggest a recent increase in coronavirus in Northeast states’ wastewater.

    During the most recent week of data available (September 24-30), the U.S. reported about 18,100 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,600 new admissions each day
    • 5.5 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 6% fewer new admissions than the prior week (September 17-23)

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 10.9% of tests in the CDC’s surveillance network came back positive
    • A 1% higher concentration of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater than the prior week (as of September 27, per Biobot’s dashboard)
    • 29% of new cases are caused by Omicron EG.5, 23% by XBB.1.6, 14% by FL.1.5.1 (as of September 30)

    After a couple of weeks’ decline, COVID-19 spread in the U.S. may be leveling off ahead of more increases in late fall and winter. We’re seeing plateaus in wastewater data, paired with slight declines in test positivity and hospital indicators.

    Biobot’s COVID-19 wastewater dashboard suggests that national COVID-19 spread reached a plateau last week, increasing very slightly from September 20 to September 27. The company’s regional data suggest that this plateau is consistent in all four regions, but the Northeast has significantly higher (and potentially rising) viral levels. It’s worth noting Biobot’s data may have become less comprehensive recently; see below for more details.

    The WastewaterSCAN project similarly shows that COVID-19 spread hasn’t changed much at the national level in recent weeks: it is high with no significant trend up or down, according to the project’s assessment. Per WastewaterSCAN, the Northeast and Midwest continue to have more coronavirus transmission than the West and South.

    Some Northeast cities are reporting significant upticks in the last week, including South Boston, Portland, Maine, and Montpelier, Vermont (the latter two report to WastewaterSCAN). In past years, late fall/winter surges have started in the Northeast and Midwest, as these regions see colder weather earlier, sometimes paired with the introduction of new variants. It seems likely that a similar trend will occur this year.

    In non-wastewater indicators: test positivity from the CDC’s laboratory network continues to trend slightly down, reported at 10.9% for the week ending September 30. Hospitalizations have also dipped slightly, though more than 2,500 people have still been hospitalized daily with COVID-19 in recent weeks.

    I wish I could update you about the fall vaccine rollout, but we literally don’t have national data on it, thanks to the end of CDC vaccination reporting requirements tied to the federal public health emergency. The CDC’s last vaccination data update occurred on May 11.

    Respiratory virus season is about to start, meaning that other common viruses (flu, RSV, etc.) will join COVID-19 in causing easily preventable illnesses. Remember that masks, ventilation, and shifting activities outdoors help reduce risks of all these viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2.

    more national numbers

  • Sources and updates, October 1

    • CDC publishes Long COVID data from national survey: Every year, the CDC conducts the National Health Interview Survey, a detailed look at population health in the U.S. through interviews of about 30,000 adults and 9,000 children. In 2022, the survey included questions about Long COVID, defining the condition as symptoms for at least three months after an initial COVID-19 case. This week, the CDC published data from the 2022 survey. Among the findings: about 6.9% of adults had ever experienced Long COVID, and 3.4% had it at the time of their interview. These figures were 1.3% and 0.5% for children, respectively. Women were more likely to experience it than men, and the survey identified other demographic differences (race, income, etc.). While many of the findings align with other Long COVID data, this CDC survey is unique in providing data on Long COVID in kids—which can be devastating for the small (yet significant) number of people impacted.
    • Molnupiravir could lead to new coronavirus mutations: A new study, posted in Nature this week ahead of its final publication, identifies potential dangers of using the antiviral molnupiravir. (Molnupiravir, made by Merck, is a similar drug to Paxlovid but tends to be less effective, so it’s not used as widely.) For this study, researchers at the University of Cambridge, Imperial College London, and colleagues examined coronavirus sequence data and found that certain mutations were likely to increase after molnupiravir use. Researchers have already known that this antiviral could lead to more viral evolution, but the paper provides more details on specific mutation risks; further research may examine the drug’s implications for immunocompromised patients.
    • Accessibility issues for COVID-19 websites: Many state and territorial COVID-19 websites don’t meet accessibility guidelines, making their key health information difficult for people who are blind or visually impaired to access, according to researchers at North Carolina State University. The researchers recently replicated a study that they’d first done in 2021, running checks on state sites against standard web accessibility guidance. “In 2021, none of these public-facing COVID-19 sites met all the checked WCAG guidelines, and things did not get any better in 2023,” study author Dylan Hewitt said in a statement. Issues include incompatibility with screen readers, limited color contrast, and no alt text for images.
    • Polling data indicate higher interest in flu shots than COVID-19 shots: The Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF) has published a new round of polling data from its COVID-19 Vaccine Monitor, focusing on vaccinations this fall. About 58% of adults in the poll said they would get a flu shot this year, compared to 47% who said they would get an updated COVID-19 shot. Vaccine interest continues to be partisan, the poll suggested, with Democrats much more likely to express confidence in the updated COVID-19 vaccines’ safety than Republicans. Democrats were also more likely to respond to increased COVID-19 spread, with 58% of those polled saying they recently took more precautions in response to the surge this summer.
    • New behavioral health survey data from the CDC: One more CDC update from this week: the agency has just published 2022 data from its Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). The BRFSS involves interviews of more than 400,000 adults each year, including questions about alcohol use, tobacco use, immunizations, cancer screenings, mental health, and more. While the data aren’t directly related to COVID-19, this surveillance system may be a valuable source for reporters or researchers seeking contextual data about health behaviors in a particular state, city, or county.

  • Resources from last week’s community event

    Thank you to everyone who logged onto Slack for last Sunday’s community event! I really appreciated the opportunity to hear your COVID-19 questions and concerns, and I hope the discussion was helpful for those who attended.

    One thing I loved about the event was that it didn’t just consist of me answering questions. The readers who attended also helped answer each other’s questions and shared resources, such as information about air filters and local COVID-safe meet-up groups.

    To bring those resources outside those who attended the event, I’ve compiled the list here:

    For both readers who attended the event and those who didn’t, I would love to hear your feedback. Should I host more of these? If yes, what would you like to discuss at events—general COVID-19 questions, or more focus on specific topics? Is Slack a good platform to use? (I.e., would it be worthwhile to pay for pro options on the server?)

    Let me know what you’re thinking: email me, comment on this blog post, etc. And thank you again to those who attended last Sunday, I learned a lot from all of you.

    SIGN UP FOR WEEKLY UPDATES

  • Ask your COVID-19 questions at the CDD community event next Sunday

    It’s a confusing, stressful time for those of us still following COVID-19 news and trying to avoid infection. Services like testing have become more limited, thanks to the end of the federal public health emergency, while changes in data availability make it harder to even recognize the ongoing risk.

    I’d like to give you—readers of the COVID-19 Data Dispatch—an opportunity to share your concerns about this latest stage of the pandemic and connect with others who feel similarly. So, I’m hosting a community event: a live Q&A in a private Slack server.

    Here’s how this will work. Next Sunday, June 11, at 5 PM Eastern time, I will log onto the private COVID-19 Data Dispatch Slack server. I’ll start a live audio chat in a channel labeled “community_events”, using Slack’s huddle feature.

    Attendees will be able to ask questions through audio or through text, in the Slack channel, and I’ll try to answer them in both formats. I also hope that attendees will respond to each other’s questions and connect about shared challenges. Remaining COVID-19 cautious these days can be an isolating experience, and I hope this event will help folks find a bit of community.

    I’ve tried using Slack for the COVID-19 Data Dispatch before; I actually created my server in early 2021, when I launched the publication’s independent website and financial support options. At the time, readers weren’t particularly interested in community discussions. But I suspect that may be different now, with the current phase of the pandemic—so I’m testing this out again. If the event next weekend goes well, I might make it a regular occurrence.

    In order to keep the community event to a manageable size, I’m going to limit it to readers who have financially supported the COVID-19 Data Dispatch. If you’ve donated at any point in the last three years, please expect a Slack invitation in your email later this afternoon.

    If you haven’t donated before but would like to attend the event, please do so before next Sunday. It can be any amount, and can be a one-time donation through my Ko-fi page or a reoccurring contribution through the website. I’ll also reserve a few spots for folks who would like to attend but are unable to donate right now—just email me to ask about that.

    You can also email me with any logistical questions! I’m looking forward to the event and hope to hear from many of you there.

  • Sources and updates, April 30

    • Local COVID-19 resources from the People’s CDC: In advance of the federal public health emergency’s end, advocacy and communications organization the People’s CDC has compiled a list of COVID-19 resources for people still seeking to stay safe during the ongoing pandemic. The list includes testing and treatments, food support, mutual aid, advocacy organizations, and links to other People’s CDC resources.
    • Premature deaths during the pandemic: A new analysis from the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker examines the impact of COVID-19 on premature deaths, or deaths that occurred before the person reached age 75. This analysis included all excess deaths (so, not just those deaths officially reported as COVID-19, but also deaths from other diseases, drug overdoses, violence, etc.). All demographic groups experienced an increase in premature mortality during the pandemic, the researchers found, but deaths increased more for people of color than for white people. Hispanic and Native Americans had the highest impact, with premature all-cause mortality rising 33% betweeen 2019 and 2022.
    • Youth risk behaviors during COVID-19: This week, the CDC published a wealth of data and analysis from its 2021 Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System, a regular survey examining health-related behaviors among U.S. high school students. The survey asks questions about gun violence, unstable housing, mental health, sexual behaviors, dietary behavior, drug use, and more. As this survey is conducted every two years, the 2021 iteration was the first to capture youth behavior during the COVID-19 pandemic, and it included some questions specifically designed to look at COVID-19’s impacts.
    • Lessons from COVID-19 report: A new book, published this week, explores what went wrong (and right) from the U.S.’s COVID-19 response. 34 leading experts from a variety of backgrounds collaborated on the book; the group originally convened in anticipation of a 9/11 Commission-style inquiry into the federal government’s COVID-19 response, and continued to investigate what went wrong even though that commission did not actually come into being. For highlights from the book, see this Q&A between two of the authors and STAT’s Helen Branswell.
    • Long-term financial issues after COVID-19: A new paper, published this week in the Journal of Hospital Medicine, finds that a COVID-19 diagnosis may lead to financial challenges. Researchers at the University of Michigan and Johns Hopkins studied this issue by linking healthcare records from a large Michigan-based insurance network with financial records from the credit company Experian. The study included over 132,000 Michigan residents. People who had COVID-19 were more likely to see their credit score drop following that infection, the researchers found; those who were hospitalized with severe symptoms had the highest risk of this financial impact.

    All featured sources

  • Sources and updates, March 19

    • Long-term effects of COVID-19 on kids: The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) recently published a report about how the COVID-19 pandemic has impacted children and families. It includes a variety of health impacts (physical, behavioral, mental), interventions taken by schools and other institutions, access to healthcare coverage, impacts of COVID-related economic policies, and recommendations for addressing this issue in the future. The report’s authors note that, for “almost every outcome” related to health and well-being, COVID-19’s impacts were worse for Black, Hispanic/Latino, Native American, and low-income families.
    • Shorter sleep duration during the pandemic: On a similar topic: the CDC’s Preventing Chronic Disease journal recently published an article about teenagers’ sleep habits during the pandemic. The study used data from the 2021 Adolescent Behaviors and Experiences Survey, a nationally-representative survey of high school students. About three-quarters of students surveyed slept for less than eight hours a night, and students who slept less were more likely to report that doing their schoolwork became more difficult during the pandemic. While shorter sleep was becoming an issue before COVID-19, this study shows how COVID-related stress may have exacerbated the problem.
    • Maternal mortality keeps getting worse: This week, the CDC released its most recent, official statistics on maternal mortality in the U.S. The new data reflect deaths in 2021, and show that mortality rates rose to about 33 deaths per 100,000 births, compared to rates closer to 20 per 100,000 births in 2020 and 2019. Mortality rates were more than 2.5 times higher for Black women compared to white women. For more recent data (and additional demographic figures), see this story and GitHub repository from MuckRock, also shared in last week’s newsletter.
    • WHO updates its variant tracking system: The World Health Organization announced on Thursday that it will start classifying subvariants of Omicron as distinct Variants of Interest (VOIs) and Variants of Concern (VOCs), and will assign new Greek-letter names to VOCs. Omicron lineages have accounted for the vast majority of coronavirus circulating globally since early 2022, but all subvariants have previously been clustered under that one Greek-letter name. Now, the WHO will give us new names as needed, hopefully making future variants a bit easier to talk about. The WHO also updated its definitions for classifying new subvariants as VOCs or VOIs.
    • Wastewater monitoring continues to expand: Two updates about local wastewater surveillance programs caught my attention this week. First, the City of Chicago’s public health department has announced it will start monitoring wastewater for polio, in collaboration with the University of Illinois, state health department, and national CDC. And second, two local agencies in the Bay Area, California recently started testing wastewater for traces of drugs, including fentanyl, methamphetamine, cocaine, and nicotine. We’ll likely see more announcements like this across the U.S. as agencies continue to expand their wastewater surveillance programs beyond COVID-19.

    All featured sources
  • National numbers, February 19

    National numbers, February 19

    COVID-19 hospitalization data from the CDC suggest that new hospital admissions haven’t really dipped below a high baseline since spring 2022.

    In the past week (February 9 through 15), the U.S. officially reported about 260,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 37,000 new cases each day
    • 79 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% fewer new cases than last week (February 2-8)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 25,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,500 new admissions each day
    • 7.5 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,800 new COVID-19 deaths (400 per day)
    • 80% of new cases are caused by Omicron XBB.1.5; 16% by BQ.1 and BQ.1.1; 1% by CH.1.1 (as of February 18)
    • An average of 70,000 vaccinations per day

    Nationally, official COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations continue to trend slowly downward, suggesting that we’re in a high plateau of consistent virus spread. Reported cases have only declined by about 18% in the last month, while new hospital admissions have declined by 28%.

    Wastewater surveillance data from Biobot also continue to indicate that COVID-19 spread has plateaued nationally, with slightly different trends at the regional level: a potential uptick in the Northeast, a trend back down in the Midwest, and slight declines in the West and South.

    At the state level, some Midwest states continue to report increases in their COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations. These states include: Wyoming, Alaska, Montana, Utah, Nebraska, Michigan, and Missouri. (Though the wastewater decline could indicate that these trends in clinical case data may turn around soon.)

    As I pointed out last week, the current COVID-19 plateau is unique from what the U.S. experienced around this time in 2022 and 2021. In both of those years, virus spread declined significantly after a winter surge, leading to relatively low levels in the spring. But this year, the decline has been shorter and has stopped earlier, leaving us with continued high COVID-19.

    Biobot’s communications team pointed out on Twitter recently that the national average of coronavirus concentrations in wastewater is “about 60% higher than it was at this time in 2022” and “almost two times what it was at this time in 2021.”

    Why isn’t transmission declining more? The XBB.1.5 could be playing a role here, as it spreads further across the country. This highly-contagious version of Omicron accounted for about 80% of new cases in the U.S. last week, according to the CDC’s estimates, and is now heavily dominant in almost every region of the country.

    But I suspect a bigger culprit here is likely the complete lack of COVID-19 safety protocols right now. In spring 2021, first-round vaccines and continued non-pharmaceutical interventions played a big role in preventing disease, while in 2022, the U.S. had a lot of immunity from vaccinations and the recent, massive Omicron BA.1 surge, combined with some continuation of other measures. (Though that immunity quickly faded when BA.2 came on the scene.)

    Now, we have less population immunity, less non-pharmaceutical interventions, and less overall awareness of the continued problems posed by COVID-19. This broad apathy towards the coronavirus hides the fact that over 400 people are still dying from this disease every day.

    more national numbers