The 2021 Tokyo Olympics begin on July 23. Will Japan be ready?

Japan’s new COVID-19 cases per million, as of May 8. Chart via Our World in Data.

They’re definitely not ready now. The Japanese government just announced it would extend an already-standing state of emergency through May 31 following a large spike in COVID-19 cases. After “Golden Week,” a sequence of Japanese Holidays lasting from late April to early May, Tokyo reported 907 new cases for the week. (New York City reported 985 cases just on May 7, for comparison.) A variant called N501Y has caused recent surges in cases, like in Osaka where hospitals struggled to treat the influx. N501Y is more infectious, and it has been correlated with more serious cases.

This surge comes as Japan struggles to roll out vaccinations. According to Our World in Data, as of May 6, 2.44% of the country’s population has received at least one dose of the vaccine. (In the United States, around 57% of the population has received at least one dose as of May 8.) So far, Japan has only approved the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for use, though it may approve the Moderna and AstraZeneca vaccines by May 20. Pfizer has also announced that the company will donate vaccines to athletes and staff, and the International Olympic Committee has said, “It is expected that a significant proportion of Games participants will have been vaccinated before arriving in Japan.”

An online campaign called Stop Tokyo Olympics has gained more than 200,000 signatures to an online petition, per Reuters. A Japanese poll in January showed that 80% of respondents said the games should be postponed or cancelled, and this trend has held true since.

Japan has been extremely successful in controlling the pandemic so far, but that has also led to a lack in urgency in vaccinating the population, and again, surges have happened. The Olympics are very difficult to do in an NBA-like bubble. The scale of the Olympics is much larger, and with case counts across the world as high as they are, it’s hard to imagine that someone won’t come down with COVID-19 during the games. As the New York Times points out, the chances of a COVID-19 free Olympics are slim—instead, the priority will be controlling cases as they come up.

Officials have repeatedly insisted that the games will go on as planned, and there is no sign that they will be cancelled or postponed. Will this current state of emergency crush the curve enough? We won’t know until July.

More international data

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  • The booster shot conversation: What you should know
    Recently, a lot of U.S. COVID-19 news has centered around booster shots—additional vaccine doses to boost patients’ immunity against the coronavirus. Questions abound: do we need these shots, when might we need them, how do they impact vaccination campaigns?
  • The Delta variant is taking over the world
    The Delta variant is now dominant in the U.S., but our high vaccination rates still put us in a much better position than the rest of the world—which is facing the super-contagious variant largely unprotected.
  • Will the Tokyo Olympics be a superspreading event?
    Back in May, Sarah Braner wrote that Japan was seeing a COVID-19 spike in the lead-up to the Tokyo Olympics, which are scheduled to start in late July. The situation has remained worrying since then.
  • Peru audits deaths data, shows the value of excess deaths
    Excess deaths are those deaths that occur above a region’s past baseline. Data scientists calculate the metric by determining the average deaths for a country or region over a period of several years—then comparing this past average to the deaths that occured in the current year. The deaths occurring in the current year above that […]

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