COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: National numbers

  • National numbers, April 24

    National numbers, April 24

    Coronavirus levels in wastewater may be plateauing in the Northeast, while the remaining regions of the country catch up. Chart via Biobot, retrieved on April 24.

    In the past week (April 16 through 22), the U.S. reported about 300,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 43,000 new cases each day
    • 91 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 35% more new cases than last week (April 9-15)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 11,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,600 new admissions each day
    • 3.4 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 8% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,600 new COVID-19 deaths (0.8 for every 100,000 people)
    • 93% of new cases are Omicron BA.2-caused; 19% BA.2.12.1-caused (as of April 16)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    After weeks of me warning about it, a BA.2 surge is upon us. Nationwide, new COVID-19 cases have gone up for the third week in a row; we’ve seen a 68% increase since the last week of March.

    And that’s just the reported cases: Americans may be doing about four times more at-home tests than they’re doing lab-based PCR tests, according to Mara Aspinall, a COVID-19 testing expert (who cowrites a testing-focused newsletter). The vast majority of these at-home tests are never reported to public health officials and don’t make it into our trends analysis.

    But there are other metrics that similarly indicate a national rise in coronavirus transmission. Viral levels in wastewater are going up, according to both Biobot’s tracker and the CDC’s national monitoring system; the CDC’s COVID-19 data team noted in this Friday’s Weekly Review that “more than half of all sites reporting wastewater data are experiencing a modest increase in SARS-CoV-2 levels.” Some of these increases are going from very low to still low, but they’re still worth watching.

    The U.S. is also reporting an increase in new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals: about 11,000 people this week, up from 10,000 last week. New hospitalizations lag behind cases slightly, but they are a more reliable metric, as anyone with symptoms severe enough to require hospitalization generally will seek care (so, underreporting is less of a concern.)

    At the regional level, the Northeast is still seeing the highest case rates: leading jurisdictions include Vermont, Washington D.C., New York, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts, according to the April 21 Community Profile Report. The Northeast—particularly New York and New Jersey—is also a hotspot for the Omicron sub-subvariant, BA.2.12.1.

    As I wrote last week, the New York State Department of Health recently identified new mutations of BA.2; BA.2.12.1 in particular seems to be even more transmissible than that BA.2 (which is, in itself, more transmissible than the original Omicron variant, BA.1). The CDC has added this sublineage to its variant tracking page, and estimates that BA.2.12.1 caused about one in five new COVID-19 cases nationwide in the week ending April 16.

    To borrow an analogy from my sister (an engineering student): the emergence of these new Omicron sublineages feels like when you’re trying to do a problem set that claims to have five problems, but then each problem has several sub-problems, and those sub-problems themselves have more sub-problems. In the coming weeks, we’ll see just how much more transmissible Omicron can get.

    There’s some good news, though: cases in some parts of the Northeast might be plateauing. It’s hard to tell for sure because of the aforementioned unreliable data, but wastewater data for the region (as well as for individual cities like Boston) seem to be leveling off; we’ll see next week if this trend continues.

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  • National numbers, April 17

    National numbers, April 17

    Cases are increasing, especially in the Northeast. Note all of the empty spaces (representing data gaps). Maps via the April 14 Community Profile Report.

    In the past week (April 9 through 15), the U.S. reported about 220,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 31,000 new cases each day
    • 67 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 19% more new cases than last week (April 2-8)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 10,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,400 new admissions each day
    • 3.1 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 1% more new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 2,900 new COVID-19 deaths (0.9 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused; 86% BA.2-caused (as of April 9)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    New COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have gone up for the second week in a row, and the increase was sharper this week. While the daily average of new cases (about 31,000) remains low compared to the Omicron surge, this trend is still concerning—especially when factoring in all the at-home rapid tests that are going unreported right now.

    Wastewater trends suggest that cases will continue rising in the coming weeks. Biobot’s dashboard suggests a national increase (most pronounced in the Northeast region), while about 60% of sites in the CDC’s network have reported increasing coronavirus levels in the last two weeks.

    Newly hospitalized COVID-19 patients, an indicator that’s typically behind cases but more reliable, is also showing a small increase as of this week. This will be an important metric to watch in the next few weeks: will BA.2 strain hospitals the same way that Omicron BA.1 did in December and January?

    BA.2, it’s important to note, is now causing the vast majority of new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. The CDC’s latest estimates suggested that this sublineage made up 86% of cases in the week ending April 9. And some parts of the country may be seeing further mutation of BA.2—more on that later in the issue.

    The Northeast continues to be a leader in this surge, as shown by both the wastewater trends and case data. According to the April 14 Community Profile Report, states with the highest case rates in the last week include: Vermont, Washington D.C., Rhode Island, New York, Massachusetts, Alaska, New Jersey, Maine, Connecticut, and New Hampshire.

    All of these states are seeing high transmission, according to the CDC’s old guidance. But the new guidance places most counties in these states in low or medium “community levels;” largely because hospitalizations—which, again, are a lagging indicator—haven’t started rising yet.

    This week, Philadelphia became the first major U.S. city to once again require masks in public indoor spaces, in response to rising cases and hospitalizations. I hope to see other cities and localities follow Philadelphia’s lead, but I know current attitudes make this unlikely.

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  • National numbers, April 10

    National numbers, April 10

    Coronavirus levels in wastewater are now rising in all regions of the country, according to Biobot. Screenshot taken on April 9.

    In the past week (April 2 through 8), the U.S. reported about 190,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 27,000 new cases each day
    • 57 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% more new cases than last week (March 26-April 1)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 10,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,400 new admissions each day
    • 3.0 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 10% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 3,500 new COVID-19 deaths (1.1 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused; 72% BA.2-caused (as of April 2)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    After several weeks in a plateau, new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. are once again going up at the national level. The CDC reported an average of 27,000 new cases a day last week—less than one-tenth of what we saw during the Omicron surge, but still a notable uptick from the week prior.

    National numbers of newly hospitalized patients and COVID-19 deaths are both still trending down; this is unsurprising, as trends in hospitalizations and deaths typically follow cases by several weeks.

    Wastewater, a leading indicator, is showing pronounced increases both nationally and in all four major regions of the country, according to Biobot’s tracker. Similarly, more than half of the wastewater monitoring sites in the CDC’s network have shown increases in coronavirus levels over the last two weeks.

    That wastewater signal likely means that cases will keep going up in the next couple of weeks. BA.2 is a clear culprit for this: the more-contagious Omicron sublineage is now causing about three in four new COVID-19 cases in the U.S., according to the CDC’s latest estimates. BA.2’s dominance led the FDA to pull its emergency use authorization for Sotrovimab, a monoclonal antibody drug that works against Omicron BA.1—but not against BA.2,

    As we’ve seen for the last couple of weeks, the Northeast continues to be a leader in case increases. Jurisdictions with the highest cases per capita in the week ending April 6 are Alaska, Vermont, Rhode Island, Washington, D.C., New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, and Maine. All reported more than 100 new cases for every 100,000 residents, per the latest Community Profile report.

    Under the CDC’s old community level guidance, all of these Northeast states (and Alaska) would be classified as seeing high transmission. But under the new, more lenient guidance, 99% of the country—including most counties in these states—are classified as “low” or “medium” community levels.

    These lenient levels don’t account for warnings in our wastewater, not to mention under-testing as PCR sites close and at-home tests go unreported. As Katherine Wu wrote in The Atlantic this week, the U.S. may be facing a new surge, but it’s harder to accurately track COVID-19 now than it has been since spring 2020. Don’t let the low numbers fool you into thinking all is well.

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  • National numbers, April 3

    National numbers, April 3

    BA.2 caused more than two-thirds of new COVID-19 cases in the Northeast in the week ending March 26, according to CDC estimates. It’s no coincidence that this region is also seeing cases start to tick up.

    In the past week (March 26 through April 1), the U.S. reported about 180,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 26,000 new cases each day
    • 55 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 3% fewer new cases than last week (March 19-25)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 11,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,600 new admissions each day
    • 3.3 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 16% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 4,400 new COVID-19 deaths (1.3 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused; 55% BA.2-caused (as of March 26)
    • An average of 90,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Nationwide, COVID-19 cases in the U.S. have reached a plateau. New cases decreased only 3% from the previous week to this week, following an 8% decrease the week before that. New hospitalizations and deaths are also declining slightly, approaching the same plateau pattern.

    Wastewater is showing a similar pattern, too. The overall, national trend of coronavirus levels in wastewater has been in a plateau for a couple of weeks now, according to the Biobot dashboard. Regionally, the Northeast saw a slight uptick followed by an even slighter downturn, and the South may be seeing a slight uptick now.

    BA.2, the Omicron sublineage that is more transmissible than the version of this variant that first reached us in the U.S., is now causing over half of new COVID-19 cases nationwide, according to CDC estimates. Two weeks ago, I wrote that 50% prevalence was a threshold for cases starting to increase in Europe; if the U.S. follows Europe (as we usually do), that means we’ll start seeing case increases here in the next week.

    According to the CDC’s estimates, BA.2 is already causing almost 75% of new cases in the New England and New York/New Jersey regions. It’s unsurprising, then, that several Northeast states have reported case increases in the last week. According to the latest Community Profile Report, states that reported increases above 25% week-over-week include: Arizona, Alabama, Ohio, Delaware, North Carolina, Hawaii, Massachusetts, and New York.

    New York City—an early hotspot for BA.2, as it was for the original Omicron strain in December—reported more than 100 cases for every 100,000 residents last week, according to both city data and the CDC’s figures.

    Under the old CDC thresholds, this would have put the city in a “high transmission” zone, indicating that all residents should mask up in public, indoor spaces. However, the new CDC guidance places New York City in a “low” level, meaning masks are not recommended—a clear example of the lenience in this new guidance.

    It’s good news that we’re not seeing a sharp BA.2-driven increase here in the U.S. yet, either within coronavirus levels in wastewater or within the case data. A BA.2 surge here may likely be a small bump rather than a huge wave. Still, the new lenience in safety measures—combined with federal funding running out for free testing, vaccinations, and other COVID-related coverage—is making me pretty nervous.

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  • National numbers, March 27

    National numbers, March 27

    The Northeast has seen a small uptick in coronavirus levels in its wastewater in recent weeks, followed by a plateau. Chart via Biobot Analytics.

    In the past week (March 19 through 25), the U.S. reported about 190,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 27,000 new cases each day
    • 58 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 5% fewer new cases than last week (March 12-18)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 13,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 1,800 new admissions each day
    • 3.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 21% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 5,200 new COVID-19 deaths (1.6 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused; 35% BA.2-caused (as of March 19)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    New COVID-19 case numbers for the U.S. overall are still decreasing, according to the CDC’s data. But the drop from the previous week’s cases to this week’s cases (about 5%) is lower than any week-over-week change since Omicron peaked in January, suggesting that we’re heading for a plateau—if not a new increase.

    Last week, I discussed a potential new surge in the U.S. driven by the Omicron sublineage BA.2, which is more transmissible than the version of Omicron we faced a couple of months ago. BA.2 caused about 35% of new COVID-19 cases nationwide in the week ending March 19, according to CDC estimates, up from 22% in the prior week.

    As BA.2 slowly outcompetes the other Omicron sublineages in the U.S., we also continue to see case upticks in some parts of the country. States that reported case increases in the last week include Arkansas, Kentucky, Maine, New York, Colorado, Massachusetts, and Vermont, according to the March 24 Community Profile Report. (Arkansas and Kentucky reported week-over-week increases above 25%, while the other states here reported increases above 10%.)

    Wastewater data align somewhat with these case increases. Biobot’s tracker shows a slight uptick (followed by a plateau) in coronavirus levels in the Northeast’s wastewater, at a regional level, along with plateaus in other parts of the country. And about 40% of sites in the CDC’s national wastewater network have reported increases over the last two weeks—though the CDC’s data are difficult to interpret, as this tracker doesn’t provide context on actual wastewater levels at each site.

    To be clear, it’s good news that we aren’t seeing major case increases yet, just some small upticks. At the same time, numbers of newly hospitalized COVID-19 patients and deaths are dropping to levels not seen since last summer; this week, about 750 people died of the disease each day, according to the CDC—the first time this number has been under 1,000 in several months.

    In a recent TIME article, several experts suggested that vaccines plus lingering immunity from the Omicron wave in December and January may protect the U.S. from a major surge with BA.2. Still, with safety measures dropping across the country, in the event that we do see a major new surge (from BA.2 or otherwise), we won’t be prepared to curb virus transmission in a meaningful way.

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  • National numbers, March 20

    National numbers, March 20

    COVID-19 case rates are still going down across the country, but it’s unclear how long this lull between surges will last. Chart via the March 17 Community Profile Report.

    In the past week (March 12 through 18), the U.S. reported about 210,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 30,000 new cases each day
    • 64 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 17% fewer new cases than last week (March 5-11)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 16,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 2,300 new admissions each day
    • 4.9 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 27% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 7,400 new COVID-19 deaths (2.2 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused; 23% BA.2-caused (as of March 12)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    National COVID-19 case numbers are still falling, as we reach two months since the peak of the Omicron surge. The U.S. reported about 30,000 new cases each day last week, according to the CDC; that’s the lowest this number has been since last summer.

    Hospitalization and death numbers are also still falling. The CDC reports that only 2,300 new COVID-19 patients were admitted to U.S. hospitals each day last week, compared to almost ten times that number at Omicron’s peak. Hospital systems in all 50 states and D.C. are currently labeled as “having capacity” on the Circuit Breaker Dashboard.

    While this is all good news, it’s unclear how long this lull in cases will last. BA.2, the Omicron sister strain, is slowly outcompeting the original variant thanks to its even-more-transmissible capabilities: it’s gone from causing about 2% of new COVID-19 cases nationwide in the week ending February 12 to causing 23% of new cases in the week ending March 12, according to CDC estimates.

    This strain is wreaking havoc in Asia and Europe, and U.S. experts are concerned that we may see a new surge in the coming weeks. Wastewater data may also suggest an oncoming surge, as a growing number of sewershed collection sites are reporting increases in their coronavirus levels. (More on this later in the issue.)

    At the state level, a few places are beginning to see case increases: Washington, D.C., New York, Kentucky, Rhode Island, and Illinois all reported modest increases this week, according to the March 17 Community Profile Report. D.C. had the highest case increase, 20% more cases than the previous week. Some of these locations were also the first to be hit in the Omicron surge last December.

    U.S. leaders should be taking advantage of this lull between surges to improve our preparedness: distribute masks and rapid tests, expand surveillance systems, and—most importantly—encourage people to get vaccinated so that they are protected when case rates rise again. Yet instead, Republicans in Congress are refusing to provide more public health funding, and the rate of Americans getting their first vaccine doses is lower than it has been since December 2020.

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  • National numbers, March 13

    National numbers, March 13

    Wastewater surveillance in the U.S. shows that we are currently in a plateau. Chart from Biobot, retrieved March 12.

    In the past week (March 5 through 11), the U.S. reported about 260,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 37,000 new cases each day
    • 79 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 29% fewer new cases than last week (February 26-March 4)

    In the past week, the U.S. also reported about 22,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals. This amounts to:

    • An average of 3,100 new admissions each day
    • 6.6 total admissions for every 100,000 Americans
    • 28% fewer new admissions than last week

    Additionally, the U.S. reported:

    • 8,200 new COVID-19 deaths (2.5 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused; 12% BA.2-caused (as of March 5)
    • An average of 100,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    Note: I’m shifting the format of these National Numbers posts to focus more on hospitalizations and wastewater, as case data become both less reliable and less available in many parts of the U.S.

    Overall, new COVID-19 cases are continuing to fall across the U.S. The country reported about 37,000 new cases a day last week, according to the CDC, compared to ten times that number in early February.

    Case numbers have become less reliable lately as testing sites close and people are redirected to use at-home rapid tests, which are generally not reported. Still, we’re seeing a similar trend in new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals: both new cases and new admissions dropped almost 30% last week from the week prior.

    Additionally, wastewater levels are decreasing or plateauing across the country, according to the Biobot tracker, which compiles trends from over 90 locations. The CDC wastewater surveillance tracker is showing similar overall trends as well.

    More than 98% of the U.S. population now lives in a location with a low or medium COVID-19 Community Level, according to the CDC. But a few places did see case increases last week: these include Nebraska, Kentucky, Alaska, and Delaware, according to the March 10 Community Profile Report.

    BA.2, the Omicron sister variant that is even more transmissible than the original version of this strain, is slowly gaining ground in the U.S.: it’s gone from causing an estimated 1% of cases in the first week of February to 12% in the first week of March, according to the CDC’s modeling.

    It hasn’t impacted case trends here yet, but deserves close attention in the coming weeks and months. Gothamist has a helpful article about BA.2’s potential impact in New York, where the variant’s prevalence in wastewater is doubling statewide every two weeks.

    Meanwhile, several European countries—including the U.K., Germany, the Netherlands, and others—reported case increases this week. This is likely due to ending pandemic safety measures, Omicron gaining its second wind, or some combination of the two; regardless, it doesn’t bode well for the U.S., which is also ending pretty much all pandemic safety measures.

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  • National numbers, March 6

    National numbers, March 6

    About 90% of the U.S. population now lives in a medium- or low-level COVID-19 “Community Level,” according to the CDC.

    In the past week (February 26 through March 4), the U.S. reported about 371,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 53,000 new cases each day
    • 113 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 29% fewer new cases than last week (February 19-25)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 30,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (9 for every 100,000 people)
    • 11,000 new COVID-19 deaths (3.3 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused (as of February 26)
    • An average of 140,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    New COVID-19 cases continue falling in the U.S. as the Omicron wave fizzles out. This week, the CDC reported an average of 53,000 new cases a day—less than one-tenth the cases reported at the peak of this surge.

    Hospitalization metrics also continue falling. About 30,000 new COVID-19 patients were admitted to U.S. hospitals this week, compared to almost 150,000 at the peak of the surge. According to the Hospital Circuit Breaker dashboard, only two states are currently at or over hospital capacity: Nebraska and Vermont.

    We’re now in the second week of the CDC’s new “Community Level” guidance for safety precautions tied to regional COVID-19 metrics. As of this week, “more than 90% of the U.S. population is in a location with low or medium COVID-19 Community Level,” according to the agency.

    Of course, the agency’s old guidance—still available on its COVID-19 dashboard—is less generous. According to these metrics, almost half of the country is still seeing “high community transmission,” with more than 100 new cases per 100,000 people in the last week. Remember, even though case numbers are much lower now than they were in early January, the Omicron surge warped our whole sense of COVID-19 proportion.

    Meanwhile, some parts of the country where Omicron arrived and peaked earlier are now in distinct plateaus. This includes Washington, D.C. and New York City; in NYC, case rates have actually started ticking back up very slightly in the last week.

    I personally trust NYC case numbers more than that metric in other places because the city still has widely available public testing. But as other cities and states close testing sites and redirect people to at-home tests, case numbers will continue becoming less reliable over the coming weeks. So, I am thinking about shifting these national updates to focus more on other metrics, like hospitalizations and wastewater.

    Readers, what do you think? Any recommendations for metrics you’d like to read more about here? Comment below or email me and let me know.

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  • National numbers, February 27

    National numbers, February 27

    COVID-19 metrics are dropping across the board. Chart via Conor Kelly, posted on Twitter on February 23.

    In the past week (February 19 through 25), the U.S. reported about 526,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 75,000 new cases each day
    • 160 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 38% fewer new cases than last week (February 12-18)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 42,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (13 for every 100,000 people)
    • 12,000 new COVID-19 deaths (3.6 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused (as of February 19)
    • An average of 200,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    The U.S. is now on week six of falling COVID-19 case numbers nationwide. New cases fell 38% from last week to this week, and are down 87% from one month ago. This is also the first week that the country has reported a daily new case average under 100,000 since early December.

    Hospitalizations also continue to fall, with about 30% fewer new COVID-19 patients entering U.S. hospitals this week compared to last week. And death numbers have also begun to come down—though they are still high, with over 1,500 people dying of COVID-19 each day.

    Case numbers are falling in every single U.S. state; five states and D.C. reported fewer than 100 new cases for every 100,000 residents in the past week, according to the latest Community Profile Report: Washington, Nebraska, Maryland, Nevada, and Ohio. Last week, Maryland was the first state to report case numbers below the CDC’s old high transmission threshold. (The new threshold is higher, which I’ll get into later this issue.)

    To quote prolific COVID-19 data commentator (and my former COVID Tracking Project colleague) Conor Kelly, whose chart is featured above: “There’s not all that much interesting to report on with COVID data right now. Things are getting better fast everywhere. It’s just a question of how long it continues.”

    That continuation depends largely on variants. As the Omicron surge recedes, how long will we see these decreases (or a plateau at low numbers) before a new variant drives another surge? 

    One key factor here is BA.2, the Omicron sub-lineage that has been slowly gaining ground in the U.S. over the past month as it is more transmissible than original Omicron. And I do mean slowly: according to CDC estimates, BA.2 went from causing an estimated 2% of new cases in the week ending February 12 to 4% in the week ending February 19. It seems to be having a limited impact on the country’s case decrease right now, but we’ll see if that changes in the coming weeks.

    Meanwhile, America’s vaccination campaign is stalling. According to the Associated Press: “The average number of Americans getting their first shot is down to about 90,000 a day, the lowest point since the first few days of the U.S. vaccination campaign, in December 2020.” More investment into reaching people who remain unvaccinated (and unboosted) is necessary if we want to be prepared for potential future surges.

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  • National numbers, February 20

    National numbers, February 20

    The majority of U.S. counties are still seeing high transmission, according to the CDC, but a few places like Maryland and New York City are starting to fall below this threshold.

    In the past week (February 12 through 18), the U.S. reported about 850,000 new COVID-19 cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:

    • An average of 122,000 new cases each day
    • 259 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 43% fewer new cases than last week (February 5-11)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 60,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (18 for every 100,000 people)
    • 14,000 new COVID-19 deaths (4.3 for every 100,000 people)
    • 100% of new cases are Omicron-caused (as of February 12)
    • An average of 200,000 vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)

    New COVID-19 cases continue to drop in the U.S. as the country slowly comes down from its Omicron wave. This week, the country reported a total of 850,000 new cases, according to the CDC; it’s the first week under one million new cases have been reported since early December, though we are still seeing over 100,000 new cases a day.

    Hospitalizations are also going down, with the Department of Health and Human Services reporting about 65,000 beds in use for confirmed and suspected COVID-19 patients as of Saturday. The hospital circuit breaker dashboard (by Jeremy Faust et al.) shows that the vast majority of U.S. hospitals have capacity, as of this week. Still, over 2,000 Americans continue to die of COVID-19 each day.

    At the state level, we continue to see case decreases across the country. The one exception is Maine: this state saw a 350% increase in cases from last week to this week, according to the February 17 Community Profile Report. However, local reports suggest that a number of the new cases reported this week were backlogged—meaning the cases occurred weeks ago and were belatedly added to state tallies.

    After over a month of falling case numbers nationwide, some parts of the country are finally dropping below the CDC’s high transmission threshold (100 new cases for every 100,000 residents reported in a week). Maryland is the first state to do this, with 92 new cases for every 100,000 residents reported in the week ending February 17.

    New York City, where I live, also fell below the high transmission threshold this week, with 83 new cases for every 100,000 residents reported in the week ending February 15, according to city data. Both New York City and Maryland were early Omicron hotspots and have reported falling case numbers since early January.

    While Omicron overall continues to cause 100% of new COVID-19 cases in the country, BA.2, the slightly-more-transmissible sister lineage, is starting to gain ground. The CDC estimates that BA.2 caused 3.9% of new cases in the week ending February 12, compared to 1.5% of new cases in the previous week. As BA.2 continues replacing original Omicron, we’ll see if this subvariant has an impact on the U.S.’s downward case trends.

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