COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: holidays 2021

  • National numbers, December 26

    National numbers, December 26

    The seven-day average for new COVID-19 cases in the U.S. on December 23 has passed the peak of the Delta surge. Chart via the CDC.

    In the past week (December 17 through 23), the U.S. reported about 1.2 million new cases, according to the CDC.* This amounts to:

    • An average of 176,000 new cases each day
    • 376 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
    • 42% more new cases than last week (December 10-16)

    Last week, America also saw:

    • 55,000 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (17 for every 100,000 people)
    • 8,500 new COVID-19 deaths (2.6 for every 100,000 people)
    • 73% of new cases are Omicron-caused (as of December 18)
    • An average of 1.4 million vaccinations per day (including booster shots; per Bloomberg)

    *This week’s update is based on data as of Thursday, December 23; I typically utilize the CDC’s Friday updates, but the agency is not updating any data from Friday through Sunday this week due to the Christmas holiday.

    Last week, the Omicron surge had clearly arrived; this week, it’s picking up steam. Nationwide, the U.S. reported well over one million new cases this week—more than a 40% increase from last week. 244,000 cases were reported on Thursday alone, and the daily new case average is now higher than at any point during the Delta surge.

    Hospitalization and death numbers have yet to increase so sharply: the number of new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals this week is up less than 1%, and the number of new COVID-19 deaths is up by about 4%.

    But when Omicron reaches those Americans who are more vulnerable to COVID-19, they’ll arrive at hospitals already overwhelmed from Delta, the flu, and nearly two years of pandemic burnout. At the same time, Omicron’s incredible capacity to spread will likely cause staffing shortages for many hospitals, as workers get breakthrough cases. On Thursday, the CDC announced that healthcare workers who get sick may shorten their quarantines if their facilities are facing shortages.

    New York City continues to be a major Omicron hotspot: according to city data, one in every 100 New Yorkers has tested positive for COVID-19 in the last week. In Manhattan, the number is one in 60. And these numbers don’t include people who tested positive on rapid at-home tests and weren’t able to confirm it with PCR. The city’s test positivity rate is over 10%, indicating that a lot of cases are going unreported in official data.

    Washington, D.C. has also emerged as a Omicron hotspot this week, with an average of over 1,000 new cases reported daily in the week ending December 22. That’s more than three times higher than the city’s case record at any other point during the pandemic. Meanwhile, several states have seen their case rates more than double in the past week, according to the latest Community Profile Report: Hawaii, Florida, Louisiana, Georgia, and Maryland.

    As Omicron sweeps across the country—aided by holiday travel and gatherings—we are about to face the reporting delays that come with every holiday. Public health workers from local agencies to the CDC are taking time off, while testing sites close for Christmas and millions of rapid tests go unreported.

    Erin Kissane, co-founder of the COVID Tracking Project, wrote about holiday data issues in The Atlantic this week. Her piece concludes:

    In this information vacuum, some of us will tend toward caution and others toward risk. By the time Americans find out the results of our collective actions, the country will have weeks of new cases—an unknown proportion of which will turn into hospitalizations and deaths—baked in. In the meantime, the CDC’s COVID Data Tracker Weekly Review has wished us all a safe and happy holiday and gone on break until January 7, 2022.

    more national numbers

  • Send me your holiday COVID-19 questions

    It’s been about one year since I wrote the post, “Your Thanksgiving could be a superspreading event.” This post, inspired by a question I received from a reader, explained that a superspreading event occurs when one person infects many others with the coronavirus in a short period of time. I also went over how we identify these events and where they tend to occur—typically in crowded, indoor, poorly ventilated settings where people are packed together for long periods of time.

    I ended the post by arguing that Thanksgiving celebrations, along with transportation and other activities along the way to those celebrations, could potentially become superspreading events. This year, the risk of spreading COVID-19 at a holiday gathering is still present—but for many gatherings, it’s much more manageable thanks to vaccines.

    If you’re planning a holiday gathering this year, here are a couple of resources I’d recommend:

    • Upcoming holiday season (Your Local Epidemiologist): In this post, Dr. Katelyn Jetelina goes through a couple of different potential scenarios for holiday gatherings based on vaccine levels. If everyone is fully vaccinated, she writes, “approach the celebration like we did before the pandemic.” If not, more safety layers—such as encouraging new vaccinations, testing, and ventilation—may be useful.  
    • Preparing for the holidays? Don’t forget rapid tests for COVID-19 (Harvard Health Publishing): This article, by Dr. Robert Shmerling, focuses more on the role of COVID-19 tests; Shmerling suggests that holiday hosts may offer rapid tests as guests arrive, or require a PCR test as a prerequesite to the gathering. He acknowledges, however, that rapid tests are currently pricey in the U.S. and come with other caveats.
    • What 5 health experts advise for holiday travel this year (Washington Post): For the unvaccinated, “your recommendations are identical to what they were last year,” Ohio State University’s Iahn Gonsenhauser told WaPo. But for the vaccinated, travel and gatherings are safer; the experts quoted in this article recommend asking about the vaccination status of other holiday guests, packing rapid tests, and making a backup plan in case someone tests positive.

    But even the best resources cannot cover every possible scenario. So, I’d like to open this up for reader questions: What do you want to know about COVID-19 as we head into the 2021 holiday season?

    To send me a question, simply comment below. You can also email me (betsy@coviddatadispatch.com) or hit me up on Twitter or Facebook.