HV.1, JN.1: Variants to watch this fall and how we’re tracking them

As winter approaches, pretty much every public health expert I follow is anticipating a COVID-19 surge. The size and severity of that surge may depend in part on SARS-CoV-2 variants. As a result, experts are closely watching a few current variants that might lead to faster COVID-19 spread this winter. Here’s a review of what’s circulating right now, what to watch for in the coming weeks, and how our public health system is tracking the variants.

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COVID source shout-out: Cryptic lineage investigation in Ohio

Marc Johnson, a molecular virologist and wastewater surveillance expert at the University of Missouri, recently went viral on Twitter with a thread discussing his team’s investigation into a cryptic SARS-CoV-2 lineage in Ohio. I was glad to see the project get some attention, because I find Johnson’s research in this area fascinating and valuable for better understanding the links between coronavirus infection and chronic symptoms.

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National numbers, May 14

COVID-19 spread continues to trend down in the U.S., though our data for tracking this disease is now worse than ever thanks to the end of the federal public health emergency. If newer Omicron variants cause a surge this summer, those increases will be hard to spot.

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XBB.1.5 FAQ: What you should know about the latest Omicron subvariant

XBB.1.5 is the latest Omicron subvariant to spread rapidly through the U.S. It is, of course, more transmissible and more capable of evading immunity from past infections than other versions of Omicron that have gone before it, as this lineage continues mutating. Scientists are still learning about XBB.1.5; it emerged from the U.S. during the holiday season, which has posed surveillance challenges. But we know enough to say that this variant is bad news for an already overstretched healthcare system.

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