COVID-19 Data Dispatch

Tag: Delta variant

National numbers, June 27
In the past week (June 19 through 25), the U.S. reported about 79,000 new cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:
- An average of 11,000 new cases each day
- 24 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
- 4% fewer new cases than last week (June 12-18)
Last week, America also saw:
- 12,900 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (3.9 for every 100,000 people)
- 2,000 new COVID-19 deaths (0.6 for every 100,000 people)
- 52% of new cases in the country now Alpha-caused (as of June 19)
- 21% of new cases now Delta-caused (as of June 19)
- An average of 0.75 million vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)
CDC map showing estimated variant prevalence by region. The Delta variant, shown in orange here, is most common in the Midwest, where many are unvaccinated.

Cases have continued to plateau this week, with less than a 5% drop in the daily average. As I’ve said in previous weeks, this is partially due to slowing vaccinations—the White House admitted last week that the U.S. won’t meet Biden’s July 4 goal—and partially due to the Delta variant, which now causes at least 20% of new cases in the country. (More on Delta later.)

While those parts of the country that are widely vaccinated are still seeing low case numbers, others may need to prepare for another surge. A few Midwest states, in particular, have seen case jumps in recent weeks; the Delta variant is more prevalent in this region than others, per CDC data. (See the orange pie chart slices on the map above.)

Missouri now has the highest rate of new COVID-19 cases per capita: 87 cases for every 100,000 people during the week ending June 23, more than three times higher than the national average. The state has seen a sharp increase in COVID-19 patients requiring hospital care, including younger adults who may be less likely to get vaccinated. Experts in the state worry that this may be “a preview of what is to come in other parts of the country that don’t have higher vaccination rates.”

Just under 300 Americans are now dying from COVID-19 every day. A new analysis from the Associated Press confirms what many public health experts have expected: the vast majority of those deaths have occured in unvaccinated people. In May, only 150 out of over 18,000 COVID-19 deaths were in fully vaccinated Americans, the AP analysis found.

This is why CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky recently said that “nearly every death, especially among adults, due to COVID-19, is, at this point, entirely preventable.”

more national numbers
June 27, 2021
Featured sources, June 20
- CDC adds more data on Delta: The CDC formally classified the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) as a Variant of Concern this week, and updated its Variant Proportions tracker page accordingly. This means data are now available on the variant’s state-by-state and regional prevalence—though the state-by-state figures are as of May 22 due to data lag.
- AMA survey on doctor vaccinations: The American Medical Association (AMA) recently released survey data showing that 96% of U.S. physicians have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19, as of June 8. The 14-page report includes demographic data and other details.
- Rural hospital closures: The North Carolina Rural Health Research Program at the University of North Carolina tracks hospitals in rural areas that close or otherwise stop providing in-patient care. The database includes 181 hospitals that have closed between 2005 and 2021, available in both an interactive map and a downloadable Excel file.
- Health Security Net: This is a public repository including over 1,200 pandemic-related documents—research, hearings, government papers, and more—from the decades leading up to 2020, compiled by Georgetown’s Center for Global Health Science and Security. It’s built for scholars, journalists, and other researchers to analyze past and present responses to public health crises.
All featured sources
June 20, 2021
National numbers, June 20
The Delta variant is outcompeting the Alpha variant in the U.S. Source: outbreak.info

In the past week (June 11 through 17), the U.S. reported about 80,000 new cases, according to the CDC. This amounts to:
- An average of 11,000 new cases each day
- 24 total new cases for every 100,000 Americans
- 19% fewer new cases than last week (June 5-11)
Last week, America also saw:
- 13,800 new COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals (4.2 for every 100,000 people)
- 2,000 new COVID-19 deaths (0.6 for every 100,000 people)
- 66% of new cases in the country now Alpha-caused (as of June 5)
- 10% of new cases now Delta-caused (as of June 5)
- An average of 1.3 million vaccinations per day (per Bloomberg)
Data note: The CDC skipped an update on Friday in honor of Juneteenth, so this update is a day off from our usual schedule (reflecting a Friday-Thursday week instead of a Saturday-Friday week).

Last week, I wrote that I’m getting very worried about the Delta variant (or B.1.617.2, the variant first identified in India). Now, I’m even more worried.

The CDC updated its variant prevalence estimates this week, reporting that the variant makes up 10% of U.S. cases as of June 5. This aligns with other estimates I cited last week, and suggests that the variant is spreading here at a truly rapid pace—its prevalence multiplied by four times in two weeks, according to CDC data.

That means Delta could be the dominant variant in the U.S. within a month, if not sooner. Vaccinated Americans are well-protected against this variant, but those who are unvaccinated need to get their shots—and soon.

Vaccinations have picked up a bit this week, per Bloomberg. In the past week, we’ve seen 1.3 million shots administered a day. Still, researchers have estimated that the U.S. is likely to fall short of Biden’s 70%-by-July-4 goal. Disparities persist in the rollout as well.

Meanwhile, national case numbers continue to drop (though not as dramatically as the drops a few weeks ago), while hospitalization and death numbers remain low. Notably, the vast majority of COVID-19 patients currently in hospitals are unvaccinated.

When New York Governor Cuomo set off fireworks on Tuesday to celebrate the state’s full reopening, my girlfriend and I went up to our building’s roof to watch—only to be unable to see the show. We later realized that the fireworks were set off in New York Harbor, visible mostly to lower Manhattan (but not the outer boroughs, which have felt the brunt of COVID-19). It felt like an apt metaphor for the current state of the pandemic.

more national numbers
June 20, 2021
It’s time to worry about the Delta variant
The Delta variant (also known as B.1.617.2) was first identified in India earlier this spring. It’s now known to spread more easily than any other variant found so far and evade immunity from a prior COVID-19 infection. Scientists are also investigating the variant’s potential to more easily cause severe disease—as well as links to a “black fungus” that has become a secondary epidemic in India.

Harvard epidemiologist William Hanage called the variant “really, really anxiety-inducing,” STAT’s Andrew Joseph reports. (If you’d like to read more on the biology of this variant, Joseph’s article provides a useful overview.)

The Delta variant was first identified in the U.S. in April. It’s making up a small fraction of new cases at the moment, but is spreading rapidly: from an estimated 1.3% of cases on May 8, to 2.5% of cases on May 22, to 6.1% of cases on June 5. The June 5 estimate comes from CDC’s Nowcast predictions, which extrapolate from the most recent available sequencing data (typically reported with a lag of two weeks or more.)

The share of cases caused by this variant appears to be doubling every two weeks, which means that Delta could become the dominant variant here this summer. Some data suggest that domination could happen within a month—a dashboard run by the testing company Helix puts Delta at 10% of new cases as of May 31, suggesting an even faster transmission rate for the variant.

Helix scientist Alexandre Bolze wrote on Twitter that Delta could become dominant “next week or next 2 weeks” based on these trends.

Other variant trends also support Delta’s dominance. This variant, along with Gamma (or P.1, the variant first identified in Brazil), appears to be outcompeting other variants of concern in the U.S. Alpha (or B.1.1.7) has now plateaued at around 70% of U.S. cases, according to CDC data. The variants found in California and New York, both of which made up more than 10% of new cases earlier in the spring, are now declining.

While the CDC is not yet publishing data on Delta’s prevalence in individual states, we can assume that state-by-state variant trends—especially in those states where Delta cases were first identified—are reflecting the variant’s rise on a national level.

Many experts are now looking at Delta’s spread in the U.K. as a portent for its spread here. The variant has become dominant in the U.K., thoroughly outcompeting Alpha, and is driving a new surge—even though over half of the British population has received at least one vaccine dose. In fact, the U.K. has delayed its full reopening plans by a month due to this case resurgence.

The COVID-19 vaccines currently in use in both the U.K. and the U.S. do work well against Delta, especially the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines—and especially after a full two-dose regimen is complete. But anyone not yet vaccinated is highly vulnerable to this variant. In the U.K., the current case surge is driven by young adults and teenagers who aren’t yet eligible for vaccination.

As physician and public health expert Vin Gupta put it: “Being unvaccinated on June 9, 2021 is much more risky to your own wellbeing than being unvaccinated on June 9, 2020.” And the longer one waits, the riskier this condition becomes.

The Delta variant should serve both as an additional reason for those in wealthy nations who aren’t yet vaccinated to get their shots—and a reason for wealthy nations to share doses with the rest of the world.

More variant data
June 13, 2021